Christine Abely, Professor at New England Law, discusses the effectiveness and future of economic sanctions on Russia, including targeting oligarchs and exploring new alliances. They also analyze the costs of maintaining economic relationships with Russia and the potential for regime change. The chapter explores the interdependence between China and Russia and its impact on consumer products.
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Quick takeaways
Economic sanctions on Russia have reduced its resources for war and forced it to find alternative oil buyers.
Sanctions alone may not bring about resolution or regime change, but they can contribute to long-term pressures and affect the global geopolitical landscape.
Deep dives
Effectiveness of Sanctions on Russia
Sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have had an impact on reducing the resources available to Russia to wage war. Over 3,600 individuals, entities, vessels, and aircraft have been targeted, including Russian-owned banks, military manufacturers, and government leaders. These sanctions have forced Russia to find alternative buyers for its oil, such as India and China. Going forward, the coalition of sanctioning nations will need to enhance enforcement and implement new strategies to counter Russia's attempts to bypass the sanctions.
Limitations and Challenges of Sanctions
While sanctions have had an economic impact on Russia, they have not brought about a resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The military aspect of the conflict and conscription of Russian citizens play a significant role in the durability of the government's actions. Economic sanctions alone rarely lead to regime change but can contribute to domestic pressure in the long run. Despite product shortages due to sanctions, China's increased economic ties with Russia have provided some substitutes and economic interdependence between the US and China limits the likelihood of a coordinated global effort against China.
Using Economic Tools in Foreign Policy
Economic tools, such as sanctions, have become crucial in shaping foreign policy. While economic sanctions have foreign policy ends, their impact is felt by private parties and entities. The use of economic sanctions against Russia has highlighted the connection between economic and military aspects in geopolitical conflicts. Economic sanctions alone may not result in immediate resolution or regime change, but they can contribute to long-term pressures and affect the global geopolitical landscape.