What to expect next year: Global predictions for 2025
Dec 23, 2024
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Anthony Zurcher, BBC senior North America correspondent, discusses Donald Trump's possible agenda for 2025. Laura Bicker, BBC's China correspondent, explores China's stance on trade with the U.S. under Trump. Katya Adler, BBC's Europe editor, analyzes the political instability in France and Germany and its effects on U.S.-European relations. Lise Doucette reports on the potential for hostage negotiations in Syria. Alan Kasudja shares insights on the humanitarian crisis in Sudan and South Africa's political shifts, highlighting pressing global challenges.
Donald Trump's return to the presidency in 2025 is set to reshape U.S. policies on immigration and economic nationalism significantly.
Political instability in France and Germany is likely to hinder Europe's responsiveness to external geopolitical pressures amid rising tensions.
Global climate goals face hurdles in 2025, with emissions trends remaining unfavorable despite opportunities for renewable energy advancement in China.
Deep dives
Donald Trump's Agenda for 2025
Donald Trump's return to office in 2025 is expected to reshape U.S. domestic and foreign policies significantly. His administration is likely to prioritize restrictive immigration policies, focusing on undocumented migration and economic nationalism through tariffs. Trump has appointed key figures who share his conservative populism, indicating a potential revival of policies like family separation and aggressive tariff implementation against competitors such as China. This cabinet reshaping aims to reinforce his campaign promises, suggesting a move towards a controversial and potentially confrontational governance style from the outset.
Impact on U.S.-Ukraine Relations
Trump's presidency is poised to alter the U.S. stance on Ukraine amidst its ongoing conflict with Russia. Historically sympathetic towards Putin, Trump has expressed intentions to reevaluate American military support for Ukraine in favor of ending the violence, potentially leading to negotiations that may not completely align with Ukraine's territorial integrity. The changing political landscape within Congress, dominated by skepticism towards prolonged aid, could influence how Ukraine approaches its future engagements as they seek favorable terms to extricate themselves from the war. As such, American support might become significantly constrained, redefining the Ukrainian conflict's dynamics.
Political Turmoil in Europe
France and Germany face considerable political instability as they enter 2025, following recent electoral setbacks for their leadership. In France, President Macron's coalition has struggled to assert control, leading to a fragmented parliament and predictions of continued governmental struggles. Germany, too, is bracing for snap elections amid a dissolved three-party coalition, reflecting broader concerns of a rudderless EU amid rising geopolitical tensions. This internal disarray could weaken Europe's ability to respond to external pressures from nations like Russia and China, further complicating the continent's role in global affairs.
Middle East Uncertainty Following Assad's Fall
The recent overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria has left a power vacuum that is reshaping the political landscape across the Middle East. With Israel's ongoing military actions in Gaza and tensions with neighboring Iran and Lebanon, the new dynamics could lead to increased hostilities in the region. Analysts predict that as Netanyahu's administration grows more assertive, the United States' supportive policies under Trump will likely embolden Israel, potentially aggravating conflicts further. The fate of post-Assad Syria remains uncertain, with various local and international actors vying for influence amidst widespread celebration of his regime's collapse.
Climate Change Challenges Ahead
Global climate targets face significant challenges as nations prepare for critical summits throughout 2025, with hopes of peaking greenhouse gas emissions. Recent assessments indicate that while a turnaround is possible, current emissions trends are not yet on track for necessary reductions to meet Paris Agreement goals. China's dual role as a leader in renewable energy production and the largest emitter of greenhouse gases complicates the situation, highlighting both opportunities and obstacles in achieving meaningful change. Donald Trump's skepticism towards climate policies may impede progress in the U.S., complicating the international response to climate change and potentially affecting global commitments leading into pivotal summits.
BBC correspondents forecast the leading news stories for the year ahead. If 2024 was the year of elections - around half the world’s population went to the polls this year alone - then 2025 will be the year the election winners try and deliver on their promises. Among them, incoming US president Donald Trump — who has criticised the status quo domestically, and abroad.
The world will also enter 2025 with wars in the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan showing no signs of ending - could there be any breakthroughs? And - in the fight against climate change - is 2025 the year greenhouse gas emissions peak?
On this episode Azadeh Moshiri asks the BBC’s top correspondents for their predictions on what they think will happen in the next 12 months.
The Global Story brings you trusted insights from BBC journalists worldwide. We want your ideas, stories and experiences to help us understand and tell #TheGlobalStory. Email us at theglobalstory@bbc.com You can also message us or leave a voice note via WhatsApp on +44 330 123 9480.
Producer: Ben Carter
Sound engineers: Ben Andrews and James Beard
Assistant editors: Sergi Forcada Freixas and Richard Fenton-Smith
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