PARAG KHANNA: Where should we move to as climate collapses?
Jun 4, 2024
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Parag Khanna, a global strategist and climate migration expert, discusses the future of humanity in a climate-challenged world. He highlights the urgency of considering where to live as fertility declines and environmental hazards rise. Parag proposes bold ideas like climate relocation grants to address these issues. He emphasizes that young people are gravitating towards adaptable, sustainable communities, suggesting that migration could drive economic growth. The conversation delves into the implications of living nomadically while addressing the real estate investments in a rapidly changing climate.
Migration is not just a future issue, as current realities indicate that over a billion people may relocate this century due to climate and demographic changes.
Declining birth rates in developed nations prompt a competitive 'war for young talent' to sustain economies and ensure labor market stability.
Future migration will unfold through various pathways, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies to manage the challenges posed by climate change.
Deep dives
The Shift Towards Migration
Migration has been a recurring theme throughout human history, with Parag Khanna emphasizing that this movement is not a future phenomenon but a current reality. The forecast suggests that over a billion people may leave their current locations this century, driven by both climatic and demographic factors. Interestingly, the concept of stability in population is a myth, as most societies have experienced migration, with millions moving for resources, safety, and opportunities. The need for countries to adapt to these demographic changes is underscored, as rich and poor nations alike will experience substantial shifts in their populations.
Demographic Decline and Its Implications
Khanna highlights a significant decline in birth rates across many developed countries, leading to concerns about maintaining stable populations. As fertility rates drop below the replacement level, nations like South Korea and Japan are witnessing demographic collapse, which raises critical questions about future labor markets and economic viability. This shift prompts countries to reconsider their immigration policies to attract young talent and sustain their economies. The conversation points toward an impending 'war for young talent,' where nations must compete to attract individuals who can support their economies and fill essential roles.
Future Migration Scenarios
In discussing future migration scenarios, Khanna elaborates on four potential pathways: regional fortresses, chaotic migrations, a barbaric landscape, and progressive movement. These scenarios illustrate a spectrum of possibilities that could occur simultaneously across different regions, depending on political, economic, and climatic conditions. The emphasis on the 'Northern Lights' scenario suggests a future where migration could be actively managed to benefit both sending and receiving countries. Individuals and nations must prepare for these realities, recognizing the inevitable need for adaptability in the face of global changes.
Preparing for Climate and Economic Shifts
Khanna emphasizes that climate change is a significant driver of migration, with current trends showing that about one-third of today's refugees are climate-related. As natural disasters and resource scarcity become more prevalent, millions will be displaced, further straining global systems. He advocates for proactive measures, such as managed retreat from vulnerable coastal areas and developing infrastructure that accounts for changing environmental conditions. The discussion underscores the necessity for adaptability and resilience, highlighting the importance of preparing not just for individual relocation but also for global structural changes.
The Role of Young People in Future Societies
The emphasis on young people recognizes their pivotal role in shaping future societies, where adaptability and mobility will be crucial to navigating the complexities of a rapidly changing world. Skills such as language proficiency, technical knowledge, and social agility are becoming essential as young individuals must be ready to relocate and integrate into new environments. Khanna suggests promoting policies that enable mobility, such as nomad visas and skills transfers, to ensure young people can successfully contribute to diverse communities. This generational focus reflects a broader acknowledgment of the dynamic nature of work and life in an increasingly interconnected world.
Parag Khanna (climate migration expert; AI founder) is a global strategist who forecasts human movement around the world and has a company, Climate Alpha, that predicts real estate values based on exposure to climate risk. He’s also recently published a book - MOVE: The Forces Uprooting Us - that details how billions of us will be migrating, and living nomadically, within this century.
Parag has been named one of Esquire's "75 Most Influential People of the 21st Century" and featured in Wired magazine's "Smart List" and has written several books on empires, global order, the future of conflict and migration… you get the drift. As fertility declines and large slabs of the planet go underwater or become too hot and too uninsurable (in a property sense), we’re left to ask, where in the world should we live? And, should we bother “investing” in real estate anymore? Parag answers both, plus how we should be future-proofing our kids and why the best place to live is where the young people are flocking.