#36 | The CCP's Faltering Economy, US and Japan Missile Development, and the US-China Spy War
Aug 15, 2023
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China Center Program Manager Shane Leary joins Miles Yu to discuss the root causes of China's faltering economy. They then talk about a new agreement between Japan and the United States to develop hypersonic missile intercept systems. Finally, Miles examines the state of espionage practices between the US and China, with attention to China's spy networks abroad, and the CCP's latest efforts to revitalize the informant system of the cultural revolution at home.
The Chinese economy is facing multiple challenges including a declining economy, deflation, and a demographic crisis caused by the one-child policy.
The CCP's command economy is proving ineffective in improving China's economy, and a transition to a market-driven system is crucial for revival.
Deep dives
Struggling Chinese Economy and Demographic Challenges
The Chinese economy has suffered greatly over the past year, with declining trade, foreign investment, and a struggling housing market. The economy is also facing deflation, leading to an increasing debt burden. Moreover, China is grappling with a devastating demographic challenge due to the one-child policy. The population aged 65 and above has risen from 5% in 1990 to 14% today and is predicted to reach 30% by 2050. China could lose 7 million working-age adults per year by the next decade, while its population is expected to shrink by half by the 22nd century.
China's Economic Problems and Solutions
China's economic problems stem not only from its aging population and shrinking economy but also from its command economy dictated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP's belief that it can magically improve the economy is no longer working, as evidenced by the downward spiral of the economy. Inflation is not the main issue; rather, deflation indicates a decline in consumer spending, resulting in factories facing bankruptcy. The real estate industry has also been collapsing, further exacerbating China's economic woes. To revive the economy, China must transition to a market-driven system and enact constitutional protection of property rights.
US-Japan Cooperation on Missile Technology and Security
The United States and Japan are cooperating to develop an interceptor missile to counter China, Russia, and North Korea's hypersonic warheads. This collaboration indicates Japan's awareness of China's global ambitions and the need to bolster its defense against potential threats. Japan's defense posture is shifting, focusing on developing counter-strike and preemptive capabilities, including missile defense systems. The cooperative effort between the US and Japan holds geopolitical significance as it helps maintain regional security and may pave the way for multilateral collective defense arrangements involving South Korea and others.
China Center Program Manager Shane Leary joins Miles Yu to discuss the root causes of China’s faltering economy. They then talk about a new agreement between Japan and the United States to develop hypersonic missile intercept systems. Finally, Miles examines the state of espionage practices between the US and China, with attention to China’s spy networks abroad, and the CCP’s latest efforts to revitalize the informant system of the cultural revolution at home.