It’s time for an update on the war in Ukraine || Peter Zeihan
Jan 28, 2025
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The ongoing conflict in Ukraine takes center stage, focusing on the significance of Pokrovsk and the dynamics in Kursk province. North Korean troops are struggling with high casualties while Ukraine ramps up drone attacks on Russian oil facilities. The effects of recent U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian oil are also discussed. Additionally, strategies to disrupt Russian supply chains reveal an ongoing battle to weaken their military capabilities. The geopolitical landscape continues to shift as NATO's role evolves in response to these developments.
Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian critical infrastructure to disrupt military production, signaling a shift in their offensive strategy.
Despite new sanctions from the US and EU on Russia's oil exports, the effectiveness may be limited due to resilient shipping networks.
Deep dives
Current Developments in the Ukraine War
The conflict in Ukraine continues to evolve, with notable developments in the Donbass region. Russian forces are making incremental advances towards the city of Pokrovsk, a critical rail hub for Ukraine's supply lines. If captured, this city could severely hinder Ukraine's military operations by forcing them to travel much longer distances for reinforcements. Conversely, Ukrainian forces remain active in Kursk province, combating Russian troops, including a controversial deployment of North Korean soldiers subject to dire conditions, highlighting the extreme lengths to which both sides are resorting.
Impact of Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports
Significant new sanctions have been introduced by the United States and the European Union targeting the 'shadow fleet' used for Russian oil exports, which operates in violation of international standards. This fleet, comprising outdated and often uninsured tankers, is estimated to transport millions of barrels a day, making it crucial for Russia's economy. Although the sanctions aim to pressure countries like India and China to reduce their intake of Russian crude, the resilience of such shipping networks could limit the effectiveness of these measures in the long term. Without effective enforcement or further coordinated actions, Russia may adapt and continue exporting oil despite the sanctions.
Ukrainian Offensive Aims at Russian Industrial Capacity
Ukraine has intensified its military efforts by targeting critical infrastructure within Russia itself, particularly focusing on facilities essential for oil processing and weapon manufacturing. Recent aerial drone strikes marked the largest coordinated assault by Ukrainian forces, aiming to disrupt the production of advanced chemicals used in munitions. This strategy seeks to undermine the Russian war machine by crippling its capacity to produce explosives and artillery components. While the immediate effects may not be evident, these actions could have lasting consequences on Russia's military capabilities, depending on the resilience of its supply chains and global partners.
There are two primary trends that continue from this past summer: the Ukrainians are maintaining their offensive in the Russian region of Kursk, while Russian troops are continuing their slow slog toward the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk.