JB Mackenzie: "I Have A Prediction To Make"

8 snips

Dec 3, 2025

JB Mackenzie, Vice President and GM of Futures at Robinhood, shares insights into the exciting world of prediction markets. He discusses Robinhood's innovative approach to engaging retail investors with unique financial products and the shift from futures to event contracts. The conversation touches on the end of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve and explores the implications for market dynamics. JB elaborates on the importance of liquidity and the competitive landscape in prediction markets, while giving a glimpse into upcoming trends and sports betting examples.

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INSIGHT

Fed Leadership May Matter More Than Next Cut

Danny warns that a potential Fed chair change (Kevin Hassett) could matter more than an imminent 25bp cut because it signals future policy direction.
He cautions that dovish leadership may prioritize cushioning markets over inflation control, affecting long-duration yields.

INSIGHT

Yield Curve Moves Aren't Veridical Health Signals

Danny notes steepening yield curves won't necessarily signal a healthy economy if the Fed cuts while ignoring inflation.
He stresses long-term debt realities — nearly $39 trillion U.S. debt makes unchecked easing risky.

ANECDOTE

Lessons From Leverage: Bitcoin Treasuries

Danny recounts studying crypto treasuries and warns leverage magnifies fragility, referencing pre-GFC home finance parallels.
He recommends buying the underlying asset rather than complex engineered vehicles when uncertain.

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In this episode of 'On the Tape,' Danny Moses is joined by JB Mackenzie, Vice President and General Manager of Futures and International at Robinhood, to discuss the burgeoning event contracts sector, including Robinhood's recent acquisitions and partnerships. They delve into prediction markets, emphasizing how Robinhood engages retail investors through innovative financial products and technological advancements. They also discuss the end of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve, implications of potential changes in Fed leadership, and the economic impact of leveraged assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, the conversation touches on market activities, regulatory considerations, and the future of event contracts. Concluding with a focus on sports picks, Moses and Mackenzie provide a comprehensive overview of the current financial landscape and the dynamic role of prediction markets.

ABOUT THE SHOW

For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

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