Economist Steve Hanke Warns: 'A Recession Is Baked in the Cake!'
Jan 31, 2024
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James Connor of Bloor Street Capital interviews Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University. They discuss inflation dynamics, money supply fluctuations, risks of economic recession, labor market analysis, and strategies for wealth protection. Hanke offers detailed analysis and insight to help navigate the economic landscape of the coming year. They also explore Argentina's economic troubles and the role of the central bank.
The contraction in the money supply, nearing unprecedented levels, indicates a looming recession.
The Federal Reserve's reliance on lagging indicators hinders their ability to respond effectively to economic shifts.
Deep dives
The impact of the money supply on inflation and economic growth
The podcast episode discusses the research conducted by Professor Steve Henke on the relationship between the money supply, inflation, and economic growth. Henke explains that studying the money supply can help determine the future direction of the economy and asset prices. He emphasizes that the amount of money in circulation and the broad measure of the money supply, known as M2, plays a crucial role in fueling the economy. Henke also introduces the quantity theory of money, which suggests that changes in the money supply are closely related to changes in inflation and real economic activity.
Contraction in the money supply and its potential impact on the economy
A significant focus of the episode is the contraction in the money supply. Henke points out that the current contraction is nearing unprecedented levels, last observed during the Great Depression. He highlights that historical data shows that whenever there has been a contraction in the money supply, it has been followed by a recession. Henke and his partner, John Greenwood, predicted a forthcoming recession, originally expected in late 2023, but now expected to occur around the end of 2024. They attribute the recession to the contraction in the money supply and its long and variable lag time before impacting the economy.
The role of the Federal Reserve and potential interest rate cuts
The podcast also touches on the role of the Federal Reserve in managing the economy. Henke suggests that the Fed is currently flying blind because they do not monitor the money supply, which he argues is the key driver of economic changes. He points out that the Fed relies on lagging indicators such as inflation and unemployment rates, which contribute to being behind the curve in responding to economic shifts. Henke indicates that if the Fed observes significant weaknesses in the labor market, they may pivot and consider interest rate cuts. However, he believes that the market expectations for rate cuts may be delayed, leading to potential market volatility.
Argentina's economic challenges and the case for dollarization
The episode also briefly explores the economic challenges faced by Argentina, with a focus on inflation and currency issues. Henke emphasizes that the central bank of Argentina is a key factor contributing to the country's economic troubles. He advocates for dollarization, proposing that replacing the peso with the US dollar would mitigate inflation and eliminate the risks of currency crises that have plagued the country's history. Henke believes that the current government is not addressing the root problem of inflation and predicts increasing troubles for Argentina if they do not adopt dollarization.
In this episode, James Connor of Bloor Street Capital sits down with Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, to dive into crucial economic trends for 2024. They discuss the dynamics of inflation, the impact of money supply fluctuations, and the potential risks of economic recession. Hanke offers a detailed analysis of the current financial environment, explains why he thinks a 'recession is baked in the cake' and provides insight to help you navigate the economic landscape of the coming year.
Timestamps:
02:42 - Overview of Money Supply & Quantity Theory of Money
09:08 - Economic Growth & Inflation
10:37 - Asset Prices and Economic Indicators
12:45 - Historical Contractions in Money Supply
16:19 - Predictions for Future Economic Trends
22:29 - Labor Market Analysis
27:45 - Financial Markets and Money Supply
31:41 - Fed's Role and Predictions
35:56 - Strategies for Wealth Protection
39:45 - Global Economic Insights: Argentina's Case