The Rubin Report How to Spot Lies & Find Truth as Conspiracies Spread on Both Sides | Michael Shermer
Jan 31, 2026
Michael Shermer, author and founder of Skeptic Magazine, is a science writer who studies truth and debunking conspiracies. He discusses the erosion of trust after COVID, how to use Bayesian, evidence‑based thinking amid misinformation, the threats of deepfakes and AI to visual evidence, and why historical revisionism and politicized science fuel false narratives.
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Avoid Absolute Certainty
- Never assign 0% or 100% certainty to claims because we're fallible and evidence can change.
- Use Bayesian-style probabilities and update your confidence as new evidence appears.
YouTuber Triggered Major Investigation
- Shermer recounts the Minneapolis Somali fraud story and questions why it took a 23-year-old YouTuber to nationalize it.
- He urges journalists and investigators to follow such triggers with proper investigation.
Cross-Check Claims With Multiple Tools
- Use multiple fact-checking sources, including reputable fact-check sites and LLMs, to cross-check claims.
- Ask several systems and compare results before forming a confident belief.
