India Bear Explains Why Growth Story is 'Inflated'
Sep 4, 2024
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Miguel Chanco, Chief Emerging Asia Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shares a critical perspective on India's celebrated economic growth. He discusses alarming discrepancies in growth figures and the impact of reduced government spending and manufacturing slowdowns. Chanco highlights the challenges in accurately measuring post-COVID growth and contrasts India's narrative with China's, stressing potential vulnerabilities in key sectors. The conversation also touches on the Reserve Bank of India's policy responses amid these economic pressures.
While short-term indicators suggest cyclical slowdowns, India's long-term structural advantages, like demographic shifts and investment rates, offer enduring growth potential.
Deep dives
Statistical Discrepancies and GDP Growth
India's recent GDP figures highlighted the significant role of statistical discrepancies in its growth narrative. Approximately 52% of the reported 8% growth from the previous fiscal year was attributed to these discrepancies, reflecting a misalignment between GDP calculated by expenditure versus industry output. This reliance on statistical noise has led to an overestimation of India's economic performance, obscuring underlying weaknesses such as weak private consumption, which only grew by 4%. Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of India's growth, emphasizing that tangible economic indicators are showing concerns that are beginning to emerge in current economic data.
Investment Trends and Economic Components
Investment has emerged as one of the stronger components of India's economy in recent years, showing resilience compared to the sluggish performance of government spending and private consumption. Despite slight moderations, investment remains a focal point for growth, while consumer sentiment and spending intentions reflect caution, largely influenced by historical debt patterns. Exports, particularly in the services sector, have also grown robustly, with IT and business process outsourcing standing out as significant contributors. However, the overall sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over household financial pressures and tightening monetary policies that may slow down growth further.
Long-term Potential Amid Short-term Challenges
While short-term economic indicators point to a cyclically slowing growth trajectory, India's long-term structural potential remains favorable. Factors such as a youthful demographic, high savings and investment rates, and ongoing shifts in the labor force from agriculture to more productive sectors signal a promising future. Despite the anticipated slowdown and challenges posed by external factors, including competition with China and domestic policy constraints, optimism persists regarding India's capacity to adapt. As the economy evolves, embracing the potential of the digital age and investments in labor-intensive sectors could still pave the way for sustainable growth over the long term.
India's economy is the darling of emerging markets, with a burgeoning middle class, a rising population and rapid growth set to outperform all large peers this year. But recent data suggest cracks are forming, with less government spending and a slowdown in factory output.
Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics and a long-time critic of India's growth story, joins hosts John Lee of Bloomberg Intelligence and Katia Dmitrieva of Bloomberg News to explain why he believes investors are underestimating the slowdown to come.