Author Kelly Clancy discusses the game theory behind nuclear standoffs, highlighting the current tensions between Russia and NATO. The podcast explores the impact of mathematical models on war decisions, the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), and the risks of miscalculations in nuclear strategies. It also touches on historical events like the Manhattan Project and President Reagan's arms negotiations with the Soviets.
Game theory shapes nuclear policy decisions, overlooking psychological aspects.
Mutually assured destruction (MAD) aims to prevent nuclear conflict but faces credibility challenges.
Deep dives
The Roots of Rising Nuclear Tensions
Recent threats and escalations in nuclear capabilities from Belarus, Ukraine, and the US underscore a growing risk of nuclear war. The podcast delves into the role of game theory, particularly in nuclear standoffs, as a key driver of these escalating tensions. Game theory, exemplified by mathematician John von Neumann, provides a strategic framework devoid of psychological considerations, influencing crucial decisions in nuclear policy and military strategy.
From Mutual Assured Destruction to Strategic Shifts
The podcast discusses the concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD) emerging from game theory, where the threat of nuclear annihilation aimed to maintain global peace. However, MAD faced challenges of credibility and potential errors, as portrayed in the film 'Dr. Strangelove'. Subsequent developments, including war games and cultural influences like the movie 'War Games', led to shifts in US nuclear strategy. Notably, these dynamics influenced important arms negotiations between Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, highlighting the evolution of nuclear policy amidst changing geopolitical landscapes.
Last week, Vladimir Putin vowed to make new nuclear weapons and consider placing them close to NATO countries. Meanwhile, here in the US, the government boosted its nuclear weapon spending by 18% between 2022 and 2023.
The world is closer to nuclear war than it's been in at least forty years.
Today on the show: The game theory of nuclear war. When can mathematical models help us, and when can they lead us astray ... even to the brink of destruction?