Is The Fed Scared Of Something They're Not Telling Us About? | Michael Lebowitz & Adam Taggart
Dec 16, 2023
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Michael Lebowitz, Lance Robert's portfolio co-manager, discusses the Federal Reserve's surprising guidance on interest rate cuts. He questions the reasons behind the swift change and speculates if the Fed is hiding a potential recession. Lebowitz and Adam Taggart also explore the future of inflation, interest rates, liquidity, and the outlook for bonds, stocks, and the markets. They conclude by sharing their firm's latest trade.
The Fed is adjusting its interest rate cuts and guidance due to potential liquidity problems in the markets.
Non-banks like pension funds and insurance companies are expected to increase buying in the bond market, supporting bond prices.
Bonds remain attractive with higher yields and the Fed's indication of low rates, but short-term volatility should be anticipated.
Deep dives
The importance of liquidity concerns and the impact on the market
The recent decrease in the reverse repo program and the ending of the Fed's BTFP program are causing a draw on liquidity in the markets. The Fed is likely trying to stay ahead of any potential liquidity problems by warning the market and making adjustments. However, the Fed's track record of finesse in managing liquidity is not great, which raises concerns. It's important for investors to plan and understand the potential implications of decreasing liquidity and changing interest rates.
The influence of potential whale buying in the bond market
There may be a potential influx of buying in the bond market from non-banks, such as pension funds and insurance companies, due to the attractive yield and the expectation of negative correlations with stocks. This could provide some support to bond prices and keep them elevated, especially if the market experiences FOMO and bond yields continue to come down.
The attractiveness of bonds and the recent influx of buyers
Bonds have become more attractive as yields have gone up, especially for institutional investors who need steady and predictable returns. These investors have not held a significant amount of bonds, and now they see an opportunity to lock in higher yields before rates potentially go down. This influx of buyers, both institutional and retail, who have been underweight in bonds, is fueling the market and driving bond prices up.
The outlook for bonds and the potential buying opportunity
While bond prices may be overbought in the short run and could experience a pullback, the attractiveness of bonds remains. Yields are still relatively high compared to recent years, and with the Fed signaling lower inflation expectations and a push to keep rates low, bonds can still provide a good return. It may be wise to consider buying bonds now, but investors should be prepared for some short-term volatility as the market adjusts.
The Importance of Social Relationships and Disconnecting from Technology
Disconnect from technology and be social. Engaging in activities that take us away from our devices and allow us to connect with others is essential. Spending time with friends and family, being involved in social activities, and focusing on our well-being by exercising and taking care of ourselves are important investments outside of the financial realm. These activities not only improve our mental and physical health but also help us maintain a balanced perspective on the markets and reduce stress.
The Impact of Human Connectivity and Purpose
Humans are social creatures, and our well-being is closely tied to our sense of connection and purpose. The book 'Tribe' by Sebastian Younger explores how humans evolved in small, close-knit groups with shared missions and the ways in which these experiences shaped our mental and emotional well-being. While modern society often leaves people feeling disconnected, developing meaningful relationships and finding ways to contribute to a shared purpose can greatly enhance our fulfillment and sense of belonging. Recognizing the importance of human connections and creating environments that foster genuine connection will lead to a more balanced and fulfilling life.
Lance Robert's portfolio co-manager Michael Lebowitz kindly steps in this week while Lance is away. Like many, he was caught off guard by the Federal Reserve's surprisingly dovish guidance this week.
There's not an obvious reason why the Fed changed its stance on interest rate cuts so swiftly. Just two weeks ago, Jerome Powell was saying that his committee was not even talking about rate cuts yet.
So what changed?
Could the plans to cut rates more aggressively than previously guided be a sign the Fed is spooked by something Powell isn't telling us about? Like greater odds of a recession ahead?
Michael and Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart discuss this, as well as the future of inflation and interest rates, liquidity, the outlook for bonds, stocks and the markets in general. Michael concludes by sharing his firm's latest trade in response to the Fed's words.
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