Environment China China's New NDC - Where do we go from here? - with Kate Logan, ASPI
Oct 6, 2025
Kate Logan, Director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, delves into China's recent Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) outlining a 7-10% carbon emission reduction by 2035. She critiques the vague definition of 'peak' emissions and the disappointment among international observers regarding its ambition. Logan explores potential enhancements in climate action through China's 15th Five-Year Plan and other sector-specific policies. Additionally, she discusses how global geopolitical dynamics influenced China's climate commitments.
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Ambiguous 'From Peak' Target Risks Backslide
- China framed its NDC as a 7–10% cut 'from peak' by 2035 but did not define the peak or base year.
- That ambiguity creates room for a higher peak and potential emissions rebound after a supposed peak.
Renewable Targets Below Business-As-Usual
- The renewable target of 3,600 GW by 2035 implies ~190 GW/year, lower than recent installation rates.
- Sectoral and renewables targets in the NDC sit below business-as-usual and may not deliver the headline cut.
Weak Domestic Signal, Coal Missing From NDC
- NDCs often signal internationally more than they dictate domestic action, but China's NDC sends an ambiguous domestic policy signal.
- The omission of clear coal phase-down language weakens incentives for early emissions peaking and coal reduction.