Horn of Africa: Unity and Disintegration in 2024? w/ Eugene Puryear
Jan 25, 2024
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Guest Eugene Puryear and Rania Khalek discuss the obstacles and conflicts in the Horn of Africa, the importance of Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia to US imperialism, Ethiopia and Egypt joining BRICS, challenges of developing unity in the region, Ethiopia's port deal and Somali land's autonomy, unity and stability in the Horn of Africa.
The conflicts in the Horn of Africa are rooted in struggles for power, territorial integrity, and control over resources, and are influenced by historical grievances, cultural identities, and power politics.
The port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland raises concerns about regional unity and the potential fragmentation of Somalia, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach that prioritizes unity over ethnic divisions.
Deep dives
Conflict and Unity in the Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa is facing numerous challenges, including internal and regional unity. The region's geopolitical significance lies in its location as a bridge between Asia and Africa, making it a crucial crossroad for global commerce. The conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia are rooted in struggles for power, territorial integrity, and control over resources. The political dynamics in Ethiopia involve a central government fighting against militia groups like FANO and dealing with internal divisions between federalism and centralization. The Amhara region, the largest in Ethiopia, is witnessing intense violence and military campaigns. The Oromo Liberation Army is engaging in armed conflict and political struggles in the Aromia region. These conflicts are interconnected and influenced by factors such as historical grievances, cultural identities, and power politics. It is crucial to avoid simplifying the conflicts as ethnic or genocidal, as there are shared aspirations for unity, prosperity, and a departure from neo-colonial frameworks.
The Port Deal and Balkanization Concerns
The port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland has roused global attention and controversy. Somaliland seeks recognition from major Western powers and portrays itself as a reliable ally. Ethiopia, as a potential supporter, creates a contentious situation as recognition could lead to the fragmentation of Somalia. This Balkanization goes against the desires for a united Somalia. Ethiopia's involvement raises suspicions due to historical connections with Somaliland and conflicts in the region. The complex geopolitical dynamics and territory disputes surrounding Somalia underline the need for a comprehensive approach that prioritizes unity over ethnic divisions.
Ethiopia's push for maritime access and its impact on regional dynamics
Ethiopia's desire to have access to a port and guaranteed access to the Red Sea is one of the main drivers behind its push to establish a naval base in Somali land. However, the justification for this need is called into question, as Ethiopia has several ports in neighboring countries that are willing to facilitate its trade. The motivation behind Ethiopia's pursuit of the naval base seems to stem from a quest for power and economic leverage, benefiting the ruling elites of Ethiopia. This move has raised concerns about regional unity in the broader Horn of Africa. Despite Ethiopia's attempts to blame other countries for its need for a naval base, there is little evidence to support these claims. While the US and the UK publicly oppose the deal, there are suspicions that they may have a covert interest in cultivating Somali land as a client state without risking their relationship with the rest of Somalia.
The civil war in Sudan and its interconnectedness to regional conflicts
Sudan's ongoing civil war, which has displaced millions of people and resulted in tens of thousands of casualties, is part of a larger web of regional conflicts and unresolved contradictions. The previous government led by Omar Al-Bashir failed to address deep-seated issues of inequality, unemployment, and lack of development, leading to mass protests and eventually his ousting. The current transitional regime, however, represents a compromise between different factions, preventing a more representative government that could challenge the traditional elites and Western interests. This has fueled a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, plunging the country into further conflict and risking its disintegration. The situation is complicated by the involvement of regional players who see their influence tied to the outcome of the conflict. The potential disintegration or unity of Sudan will have significant implications not only for the region but also for the broader continent and the global balance of power.
