Taking stock: mixed economic signals, Fed expectations

As the economic landscape grows more complex, investors and advisors are facing new questions about growth, inflation, and what the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may do next. In this episode, host John P. Bryson is joined by Matt and Emily, who discuss the strength of the
ongoing market rally, recent volatility in the banking sector, the bond market, and rate-cut expectations. They emphasize thoughtful allocation, diversification, and a focus on quality as advisors position portfolios in a momentum-driven environment.

Below are a few highlights from the episode:

1 How is U.S. economic data shaping up currently?
Emily: Economic data is complicated right now. The latest small business survey by the National Federation of Independent Business showed a deterioration in sentiment. Manufacturing data is split, the Fed showed mixed messages, and job openings are decelerating. It's difficult to get a read right now given the lack of economic data due to the government shutdown. Overall, the U.S. economy is continuing to see a slow deceleration.

2 What is the bond market telling us about possible Fed rate cuts?
Emily: Credit markets are stable, with high-yield spreads below 3.0%, suggesting no broad stress. The two-year Treasury yield, which has broken below 3.5%, indicates the Fed may need to cut rates more than previously expected. Inflation is also likely to slow more than official data suggests. Labor market softness and real-time housing data showing falling prices are leading us to expect the Fed to cut a bit more, we think potentially four or five cuts into 2026.

3 What are your conversations with advisors and investors focused on right now?
Matt: While the recent rally has been remarkable, the question is if it’s sustainable. Our focus is on how to continue allocating capital for appreciation for clients, but in a thoughtful way, which is why we’re discussing diversification. We’ve talked about alternatives like infrastructure-related equities and multi-alternative strategies, as well as mid-cap equities to reduce concentration risk in large-cap U.S. stocks. On the bond side, you can still get good income for clients where you can liability match and use this income for spending needs over the coming years—so it makes sense to take advantage while it lasts.