Retire With Purpose - The Retirement Podcast 545: By the Numbers: Our 2026 Market Predictions
12 snips
Jan 23, 2026 Will 2026 bring a bull market or a reality check? Predictions range from 6.7% to a bullish 15.2% for the S&P 500. The role of AI in the market is pivotal, yet adoption rates lag behind expectations. The Magnificent Seven's influence is declining, prompting a shift to equal-weighted investing for stability. Global diversification and the revival of bonds are essential strategies. Pre-retirees are advised to protect their gains while considering market volatility and potential corrections.
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Mag Seven Influence Is Shrinking
- The Magnificent Seven's dominance has faded from 112% to 25% contribution over three years.
- That decline reduced S&P concentration and boosted equal-weighted index resilience.
Divergent 2026 S&P Predictions
- Casey forecasts a 15.2% S&P gain in 2026, fueled by AI-driven optimism early in the year and a late correction.
- Marshall projects a 6.7% return, expecting a choppy, volatile year with at least one sharp pullback.
Charting Roots From College Competition
- Casey admits to being a chartist in college and won an investment competition despite low class grades.
- He uses that background to justify reading charts when forecasting markets.
