Motley Fool Money Economic Data Catch-Up
Dec 23, 2025
In this discussion, Fool analysts Jason Hall and Jeff Santoro dive into the latest economic data waves following a government shutdown. Jason suggests CareTrust REIT (CTRE) as a smart long-term investment, while Jeff highlights resilient retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST). They analyze CPI and job reports, cautioning investors about interpreting imperfect data. The duo also emphasizes watching key signals like bank provisions and consumer trends for insights into economic strength as they ponder potential market shifts heading into the new year.
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Middling Data Creates Fed Dilemma
- Recent CPI and jobs data look middling: inflation eased while unemployment remained moderate.
- That mixed picture makes clear Fed decisions difficult because their mandates pull in opposite directions.
Monthly Reports Are Noisy Measurements
- Retail sales revisions and margins of error show monthly economic reports lack precision.
- Jason Hall warns small sample surveys produce noisy numbers that aren't actionable for short-term portfolio moves.
Fed Voices Cast Doubt On Official Data
- Fed officials publicly questioned data accuracy, noting payrolls may be overstated and inflation drivers are complex.
- That public doubt increases uncertainty for markets and policy decisions.