Real Time with Bill Maher Ep. #559: David Shor, Nick Gillespie, Heidi Heitkamp
Mar 20, 2021
Join David Shor, a political data expert from Open Labs, Nick Gillespie, a libertarian commentator and journalist, and Heidi Heitkamp, a former Democratic Senator, as they dive deep into the nuances of American politics. They tackle the inaccuracies in polling during recent elections, explore the complexities of drug policy and immigration, and critique the hypocrisy in political narratives. With discussions around the cultural impact of cancel culture and influencer trends, this conversation is both insightful and thought-provoking.
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Polling Bias
- Polling errors arise because people who participate in surveys tend to have high social trust.
- This bias didn't matter when politics was about taxes, but now it skews results, as seen in 2016.
2020 Polling Discrepancy
- Democrats, staying home during the pandemic, answered more surveys, skewing 2020 polls.
- Republicans, less adherent to lockdowns, were underrepresented, leading to inaccurate predictions.
Minority Vote Shift
- Trump's improved performance with minority voters in 2020 was a significant surprise.
- Hispanic voters, a key demographic for Democrats, swung considerably towards Trump.