The Grumpy Strategists Episode 48: Grumpy But Grand Strategy - Australia's Two Pillars are both in trouble
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Aug 12, 2025 The conversation highlights Australia's dual strategy of economic reliance on China and security partnership with the US, examining the complexities of this balancing act. They discuss the implications of recent US tariffs and the shifting dynamics of global power, particularly regarding Taiwan. Diplomatic disrespect among global leaders is critiqued, shedding light on historical power imbalances. The podcast urges a reevaluation of Australia's traditional approach and advocates for stronger partnerships with like-minded nations in the face of geopolitical tensions.
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Two Pillars Define Australia's Grand Strategy
- Australia long relied on two pillars: prosperity via China and security via the US.
- That twin strategy has persisted for decades but now faces contradictory pressures.
China's Dual-Circulation Upsets Dependence
- Xi's dual-circulation makes China less dependent on others while making others more dependent on China.
- That alignment can undermine Australia's economic leverage and increase coercion risks.
Beijing's Trade Pressure On Discretionary Exports
- In 2018 China quietly hit Australian discretionary exports like wine and lobsters with trade barriers.
- Australia found alternative markets but rushed back when Beijing relaxed controls.
