Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference Key Takeaways
Jun 10, 2024
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Saad Siddiqui, Ayomide Mejabi, Ben Ramsey, Gbolahan Taiwo, and Samantha Azzarello discuss key takeaways from the Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference. They touch on African economies, sovereign debt restructuring, Venezuela's presidential election, and investor sentiment in frontier markets.
Policymakers showcased positive economic trends in African frontier markets despite debt restructuring challenges, with Nigeria and Egypt highlighted for stable economic growth.
Investor sentiment towards frontier markets was optimistic, with increasing demand for investment in countries like Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, and Pakistan, although risks around interest rates and global economic environment impact were also discussed.
Deep dives
Frontier Markets Economic Outlook in Africa
A significant part of the conference focused on African frontier markets, with policymakers highlighting positive economic trends. Countries like Zambia and Ethiopia showed signs of improvement despite debt restructuring challenges. Notably, Nigeria and Egypt were seen as stable with promising economic growth, while rating agencies reflected optimism with potential upgrades in the region.
Sovereign Debt Restructuring Progress and Venezuela's Situation
Discussions centered on progress in sovereign debt restructuring, particularly in Zambia, signaling potential precedents for cases like Ghana and Sri Lanka. State contingent debt instruments were highlighted as a feature impacting debt deals, with upcoming elections adding a sense of urgency. The podcast also addressed the evolving situation in Venezuela following its return to index inclusion and the upcoming election impacting debt restructuring prospects.
Investor Sentiment and Opportunities in Frontier Markets
Investor sentiment towards frontier markets, both in credit and local markets, was largely positive due to outperformance and idiosyncratic opportunities. Increased demand for frontier strategies was noted, with specific interest in countries like Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, and Pakistan for investment potential. However, concerns around interest rates and the global economic environment's impact on these markets were also discussed, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.
Take a seat at the table as we unpack key takeaways from our recently concluded annual Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference in London and highlight top themes in this special episode of At Any Rate.
Speakers:
Saad Siddiqui, Head of Local Markets Strategy for EMEA EM
Ayomide Mejabi, Frontier Market Strategy
Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy
Gbolahan Taiwo, Chief Economist, Africa (ex-SA)
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, Global Research