Rebel Capitalist News New Inflation Data Just Changed Everything
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Sep 10, 2025 Recent shifts in the Producer Price Index are shaking up traditional views on inflation and the Fed's rate strategies. The connection between treasury yields and interest rates reveals intriguing historical patterns and raises questions about current inflation data. Additionally, gold's performance is examined, showing its unique resilience during economic upheavals. The discussion emphasizes the importance of investor confidence and tailored investment strategies, especially in turbulent market conditions.
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PPI Surprise Shifts Fed Cut Odds
- The August PPI came in negative month-over-month, surprising expectations.
- That shifts probabilities toward larger Fed cuts if CPI also surprises low.
Services-Led PPI Miss
- Producer Price Index final demand edged down 0.1% with services down 0.2%.
- The miss versus a 0.3% expectation was large and significant for markets.
PPI Often Predicts CPI
- Historically PPI and CPI often move together, and a low PPI raises odds of a low CPI.
- Since PPI led this month, the chance the CPI prints below the 0.3% forecast is high.