Merryn Talks Money Gilts, Gold and Property Tax
Sep 4, 2025
Marcus Ashworth, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist known for his insights on market trends, joins to discuss crucial economic issues. They explore the IMF's hesitance to assist the UK and analyze soaring gilt yields amidst political instability. The conversation shifts to gold's outstanding performance as an investment and unpacks the complexities of stamp duty in the property market. They also anticipate the upcoming budget challenges that could reshape taxation and spending, offering a glimpse into potential market responses.
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Global Forces Driving Gilt Sell-Off
- The recent gilt sell-off is part of a global long-end bond repricing, not solely a UK problem.
- Factors include pension changes, Japanese bond moves, French political risk and US Treasury yields.
Why UK Yields Are Higher Than Peers
- UK yields sit higher than peers partly because of stickier inflation and fiscal choices.
- Increased public spending and wage rises make the Bank of England's job harder and lift yields relative to other G7 countries.
Focus On The OBR Productivity Assumption
- Watch the Office for Budget Responsibility's productivity assumptions; small changes force large fiscal adjustments.
- Prepare for potential tax or spending changes once the OBR updates productivity forecasts before the autumn budget.