In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 149: Dyumin, Deterrence and a Deputy

Jun 2, 2024

Exploring Dyumin's rise to power, Western thoughts on deterrence in Ukraine, and insights into Deputy PM Manturov's influence. Delve into successor grooming, geopolitical tensions, Russian propaganda tactics, and Manturov's rise in power and connections.

54:32

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Quick takeaways

Alexei Dyumin's appointment as Secretary of the State Council hints at his potential as a future successor to Putin, highlighting his close ties and effective governance in Tula.

The complex dynamics of Western thinking on deterrence over Ukraine reveal concerns about Russian escalation, showcasing the delicate balance of power and the role of influence.

Deep dives

Alexei D'Yumen's Move to Secretary of the State Council: A Step Towards Succession?

Former Tula governor Alexei D'Yumen's appointment as Secretary of the State Council raises speculations about his potential as a future successor to Putin. With a background in FSO and defense ministry, his governance in Tula seemed effective, positioning him as a plausible candidate. Although his recent shift may seem like a demotion, closer ties to Putin can signify a significant role as a presidential aide, shedding light on his potential as a successor.

The Russian mindset of defence in Ukraine

01:08

Russian Propaganda Shifts on Ukraine

01:35

Putin's Belief in Western Influence on Ukraine

01:47

Introduction

5min

Speculation on Successor Grooming and Future Political Dynamics

5min

Geopolitical Strategies and Escalation Tensions

18min

Exploring Russian Propaganda Tactics and War Justifications

2min

The Rise of a Russian Power Player

21min

Reflections on Manturov's Patronage and Future Prospects

2min

An episode of various bits and pieces: what (if anything) can we read into Alexei Dyumin's appointment to be secretary of the State Council, what (if anything) is the Western thinking about escalation and deterrence over Ukraine and what (if anything) is interesting about Denis Manturov, the new First Deputy PM?

The previous podcast in which I talk about Dyumin and Tula is #48, here.

The article I wrote with Ekaterina Schulmann comparing the State and Security Councils is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.

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