In Moscow's Shadows 149: Dyumin, Deterrence and a Deputy
Jun 2, 2024
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Exploring Dyumin's rise to power, Western thoughts on deterrence in Ukraine, and insights into Deputy PM Manturov's influence. Delve into successor grooming, geopolitical tensions, Russian propaganda tactics, and Manturov's rise in power and connections.
54:32
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Quick takeaways
Alexei Dyumin's appointment as Secretary of the State Council hints at his potential as a future successor to Putin, highlighting his close ties and effective governance in Tula.
The complex dynamics of Western thinking on deterrence over Ukraine reveal concerns about Russian escalation, showcasing the delicate balance of power and the role of influence.
Deep dives
Alexei D'Yumen's Move to Secretary of the State Council: A Step Towards Succession?
Former Tula governor Alexei D'Yumen's appointment as Secretary of the State Council raises speculations about his potential as a future successor to Putin. With a background in FSO and defense ministry, his governance in Tula seemed effective, positioning him as a plausible candidate. Although his recent shift may seem like a demotion, closer ties to Putin can signify a significant role as a presidential aide, shedding light on his potential as a successor.
Deterrence Strategies Amid International Tensions: US Approval for Long-Range Systems
Amid escalating tensions, the US approves the use of longer-range systems against Russian targets, while other countries like Britain, France, and Germany consider supporting Ukrainian attacks on Russian mainland targets. The lack of a clear Western strategy and concerns about Russian escalation highlight complex dynamics. The focus on potential Russian responses and the role of Western influence in Ukraine underscores the delicate balance of power and deterrence strategies at play.
Russian Propaganda and Nationalist Narratives: Portrayal of Zelensky and Ukraine
Russian propaganda in tabloid media paints President Zelensky as increasingly insane and instigates narratives of Western control over Ukraine. Articles suggest alarming views of Zelensky's leadership and paint a grim portrayal of Ukraine's future. Emphasizing nationalism and victimhood, these narratives aim to shape perceptions of the conflict and underscore Russia's role as a protector against perceived external threats.
Analysis of Denis Manturov's Political Rise and Role: Implications for Rostec and Russia's Defense Industry
Denis Manturov's political journey from aviation industry to becoming First Deputy Prime Minister highlights his ties to Rostec and national industries. As a key figure overseeing defense and space initiatives, Manturov's support for Rostec raises questions of influence and accountability. His opulent lifestyle and intricate connections with powerful figures like Chemezov underscore the intertwined nature of patronage and power dynamics in Russia's political landscape.
An episode of various bits and pieces: what (if anything) can we read into Alexei Dyumin's appointment to be secretary of the State Council, what (if anything) is the Western thinking about escalation and deterrence over Ukraine and what (if anything) is interesting about Denis Manturov, the new First Deputy PM?
The previous podcast in which I talk about Dyumin and Tula is #48, here.
The article I wrote with Ekaterina Schulmann comparing the State and Security Councils is here.
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