Hub Podcasts Can Conservatives ever win with Poilievre as party leader?
Nov 13, 2025
David Coletto, the Founder and CEO of Abacus Data, and Amanda Galbraith, Co-founder of Oyster Group, dive into the leadership dynamics of Pierre Poilievre. They analyze his paradoxical popularity, strong among Conservatives yet weak with others. Discussing the electoral ceiling of the party, they debate the balance between energizing the base and appealing to swing voters. Insights on regional differences and generational attitudes reveal challenges ahead, while authenticity and distinctiveness emerge as key traits for future leadership.
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Poilievre’s Polarizing Popularity
- Pierre Poilievre is highly popular with Conservative supporters but deeply unpopular with non-Conservative voters.
- Abacus found a +71 net favourable among conservatives and a -62 among other party supporters, creating a leadership paradox.
No Clear Alternative Beats Carney
- Abacus tested alternatives to Poilievre and none beat Mark Carney, except Poilievre himself in head-to-heads.
- Potential challengers like Doug Ford or Stephen Harper trail Carney for different reasons.
From Phone-Banking To Political Athlete
- Amanda recounts phone-banking for Stephen Harper and watching the party grow, noting Poilievre's long connection to the movement.
- She argues Poilievre is a political athlete who instinctively understands and motivates the Conservative base.