Front Burner What Trump’s new tariff threats could mean for Canada
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Jul 15, 2025 Eric Miller, a trade analyst and president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, delves into the implications of Donald Trump's latest tariff threats against Canada. He discusses the potential 35% tariffs on Canadian goods and how this could impact key industries like softwood lumber. Miller also highlights Canada's strategic leverage in negotiations, particularly in energy and natural resources. The conversation touches on the complexities of international trade agreements and the importance of favorable terms to maintain market competitiveness amidst rising tensions.
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Impact of Tariffs on Non-CUSMA Goods
- Tariffs on non-CUSMA compliant Canadian goods would increase from 25% to 35%, a significant but manageable 10% rise.
- The majority of Canadian exports already comply with CUSMA, limiting the broad economic impact but affecting specific sectors sharply.
Risks of Losing CUSMA Exemption
- Canada currently benefits from a U.S. exemption on CUSMA-compliant goods, protecting them from higher tariffs.
- This exemption could be revoked by the U.S., leading to catastrophic impacts if trade agreements are not renewed or maintained.
Copper Tariffs and U.S. Mining Plans
- Trump’s 50% tariff on Canadian copper threatens a major industry amid rising global copper demand.
- The U.S. is pushing to develop domestic copper mines to reduce dependence on imports like those from Canada.
