Stock Valuations Are The Most Deviated They've Ever Been In History | Lance Roberts

47 snips

Nov 1, 2025

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts, a macro analysis expert, dives into the wild world of stock valuations that are historically deviated from trendlines, questioning how long this can last. They tackle the Fed's recent rate cut and implications of quantitative easing's end. The duo also explores the impact of AI on labor and infrastructure, casting it as a potential job killer or a powerful tool. With a keen eye on market breadth and the dominance of the MAG7 stocks, Lance offers a tactical roadmap for savvy investors navigating these turbulent waters.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Record Valuation Deviation

Markets are historically overextended: valuation deviations from long-term trends sit at 158%, past even 1929 levels.
That means a large correction could occur and the market might still technically remain in a bull market.

ADVICE

Understand QE/QT Mechanically

Understand QT/QE mechanics: the Fed conducts asset swaps with banks rather than 'printing money.'
Use that understanding to evaluate how Fed balance sheet actions affect treasury and MBS demand.

INSIGHT

Fed Reenters Treasury Buying

The Fed replacing MBS roll-offs with treasuries adds the Fed as a consistent buyer in the Treasury market.
That stabilizes yields and keeps the Fed positioned to return to QE if needed.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Stock valuations are the most deviated they've ever been from long-term trendlines in history.Above even 1929.But Wall Street doesn't care. The bull rally marches on, and looks poised to continue through the end of the year.But how long can this record deviation sustain?And what will the repercussions be if it doesn't?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss these key questions, as well as this week's Federal Reserve rate cut, the end of QT, the China-US trade talks, oil stocks, and Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #interestrates #artificalintelligence 0:00 – Fed Cuts 25bps & Ends QT: Expected, But Powell Pushes Back on More Cuts2:39 – QT/QE Mechanics Explained: No Money Printing, Just Bank Asset Swaps4:02 – Fed Dumps MBS for Treasuries: Stabilizes Yields, New Buyer in Debt Market7:13 – Fed Steps Back as Treasury Buyer: Material Impact? Opens Door to QE9:40 – Fed Balance Sheet Stress: Can't Shrink More Without Credit Risks11:25 – Fed's Crisis Bailouts Train "Buy the Dip": Best Returns in 30 Years12:24 – Economy Can't Normalize: Needs Deep Recession/Depression for Health13:21 – Debt Reform Choices: Small Sacrifices Now or Systemic Crash Later15:19 – No Imminent Breakdown: Debt-to-GDP Fine vs Japan/Europe18:44 – Market Breadth Crashes: Worst Since 1990 Despite Rally20:03 – Mag 7 Dominance: K-Shaped Profits, Rest of S&P 493 Starving21:05 – AI Hype Unhealthy? NO – Passive Flows Fuel Narrow Rally25:27 – AI: Job Killer or Tool? Power Crunch for Data Centers Looms29:01 – AI Bubble Risks: Overbuild Like Railroads/Internet, But Chips Depreciate Fast38:58 – If AI Bursts: S&P Down 40%, Still Bull Market (Valuations Insane)46:09 – Earnings Season Stellar: 85% Beats, Low Bar Set by Analysts52:49 – Portfolio Strategy: Rotate to Oversold Defensives (Value, Energy, Staples)1:09:12 – TA Update: Bull Intact, Year-End Rally on Buybacks/Seasonality1:24:26 – Gov Shutdown Irrelevant + Welfare Reform: End Dependency, Add Work Rules_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.