Australia boosts anti-China defences, plus inside Myanmar's rebel mountains
Mar 31, 2025
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Sarah Newey, an Asia correspondent with firsthand insights from Myanmar, discusses the devastating impact of a recent earthquake amidst a brutal civil war. She explains how this disaster may weaken the junta's grip on power and worsen the humanitarian crisis. Meanwhile, Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program, analyzes Australia's evolving defense strategy against China's assertiveness. He addresses the controversy over defense spending increases and the implications of recent military provocations. Together, they shed light on critical geopolitical challenges.
The earthquake in Myanmar exacerbates the already dire humanitarian crisis, highlighting the challenges faced by both residents and the military junta.
Australia is responding to increasing threats from China by revamping its defence strategy and increasing military spending amid regional tensions.
Deep dives
Myanmar's Earthquake Crisis
Myanmar experienced a devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake, affecting a region already grappling with a four-year civil war. The quake's epicenter was near Mandalay, causing significant destruction and complicating rescue efforts due to poor infrastructure and ongoing conflict. Initial reports indicated a death toll of at least 1,700, but many remain trapped under debris, suggesting the numbers could rise as rescue teams work against challenging conditions. Local volunteers, lacking proper tools, continue their search for survivors with sheer determination, while international aid efforts commence amidst concerns over the military junta's restrictive access policies.
The Ongoing Civil War and Humanitarian Disaster
The civil war in Myanmar has displaced approximately 3.5 million people, with nearly 20 million now reliant on humanitarian aid, constituting one-third of the country’s population. The conflict has severely impacted healthcare, with doctors fleeing cities and hospitals struggling to provide necessary services amid shortages of medical supplies and bombings targeting facilities. The UN has labeled the healthcare system as broken, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis as diseases like tuberculosis and malaria surge, especially among vulnerable children. Despite these challenges, healthcare workers continue to provide care under precarious conditions, reflecting resilience amid adversity.
Geopolitical Repercussions and China's Influence
The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with increasing scrutiny on China's role and its support for Myanmar's junta amidst a backdrop of humanitarian disaster. Recent reports suggest that while both China and Russia provide military supplies, there are indications that China's satisfaction with junta leadership may be waning due to issues such as border security and illegal drug activities. The complexity of alliances is evident, as the junta faces internal and external pressures while still receiving support from powerful allies. Observers note that the international community's response to the humanitarian crisis will be crucial in determining future stability and governance in Myanmar.
Australia's Defence Strategy Amid Rising Threats
Australia is recalibrating its defence strategy in response to increasing threats from China, notably through accelerated military spending aimed at enhancing national security. The Defence Minister announced raises in funding and a focus on acquiring specific defence capabilities to address the region's evolving security environment. This strategic pivot includes addressing the challenges posed by China's growing military presence in the Indo-Pacific, underscoring the necessity for Australia to navigate its relationship between economic reliance on China and its defence alignment with the United States. As historical contexts shift, Australia is caught between maintaining its economic ties with China and ensuring its national security against potential aggressions.
Myanmar is reeling from a major earthquake that has hit residents who are already struggling to survive amid a brutal four-year civil war. Venetia Rainey speaks to Asia correspondent Sarah Newey about her recent reporting trip from inside the country about how this will affect the junta’s grip on power and why things are likely to go from bad to worse.
Plus, we look at a major debate underway in Australia about the growing risk posed by China after Beijing sent an unprecedented naval flotilla to circle the country. With snap elections now called for May, Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, explains why there is a tussle over the defence budget and how well equipped the Australian Defence Force is.