The Gradient: Perspectives on AI Azeem Azhar: The Exponential View
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May 9, 2024 
Entrepreneur and technology analyst Azeem Azhar discusses the speed of progress in AI, historical context for tech terminology, and envisioning our future. Topics include Moore's Law, investment in scaling, uses of AGI, and cultural affordances in AI systems.
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Exponential Trends Across Industries
- Exponential growth, while observed in computing, is now apparent in other areas like battery and solar costs.
- This suggests a broader technological shift driven by consistent, significant price reductions over decades.
Moore's Law: A Social Contract
- Moore's Law isn't a natural law, but a social contract within the computing industry.
- True exponentials are rare due to physics limitations, unlike Moore's Law, which is driven by social agreement.
Learning Rates and Optimization
- Technological advancements often involve learning and optimization within complex systems.
- Miniaturization, a key strategy for reducing costs, has limitations but new laws and manipulations of matter can overcome these.