The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Demographic Lessons from the Mongols || Peter Zeihan
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Nov 24, 2025 Explore how today's demographic decline compares to historic events like the Mongol invasions and the Black Death. Urbanization and industrialization are redefining birthrates and aging populations. Witness the aftermath of Mongol raids and how clearing populations led to new polities. Discover how the labor shortages post-Black Death spurred technological advancements. Peter examines the long timelines of demographic shocks and warns that developed nations may need new economic models due to rapid declines in the coming decade.
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Industrialization Shifted Fertility Dynamics
- Industrialization and urbanization drove fertility decline because children became expenses rather than farm labor.
- Peter Zeihan warns that by 2035 about half of the developed world plus China will age into dysfunctional economic models.
Mongol Shock Cleared Land For New Powers
- The Mongol raids emptied vast eastern European lands and halted at Poland where forests neutralized cavalry advantages.
- After leadership disputes, Mongol pullback enabled settlers to expand east and form the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth over generations.
Population Losses Can Spawn New Orders
- Demographic clearing can create opportunities for new political and economic orders if a transition succeeds.
- Zeihan shows the Mongol aftermath and Polish-Lithuanian rise as an example of such long-run regeneration.