Here's Why Here's Why Prediction Markets Are The World's Casino
Dec 12, 2025
Emily Nicolle, a digital finance reporter with expertise in prediction markets and crypto, joins to dive into the fascinating realm where betting meets trading. She reveals how platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are thriving, especially with election-related bets. Nicolle breaks down the differences in U.S. regulation, highlighting both benefits and risks. She sheds light on the volatile nature of these markets and discusses the reactions from financial firms and the legal hurdles they face. Tune in for insights into this evolving financial frontier!
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How Prices Signal Probabilities
- Prediction markets use binary event contracts priced between $0 and $1 to reflect implied probabilities.
- Emily Nicolle explains price moves come from market liquidity and traders' buying and selling, not simple vote counts.
Regulation Shapes Platform Reach
- Two leading platforms are Polymarket (offshore) and Kalshi (U.S. regulated) and they operate differently.
- Regulation status shapes product scope and which users they can serve, Emily Nicolle explains.
Markets Beat Polls On 2024 Election
- Prediction markets signaled a Trump victory well before polls did during the 2024 US election cycle.
- Emily Nicolle notes traders followed those markets and were ultimately proven right.