1/31/25 Brad Pearce on Somalia, Romania, Georgia, USAID and more
Feb 9, 2025
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Scott talks with Brad Pearce, a writer on international relations, about the volatile political climate in Somalia and Somaliland, emphasizing the effects of U.S. policies under Trump. They delve into Yemen’s humanitarian crises, linking military actions to ecological disasters. The conversation shifts to Romania, where the rise of misinformation and foreign influence has led to election cancellations. Lastly, Pearce discusses USAID's role in Georgia, examining its implications on local politics and perceptions.
The podcast highlights Somaliland's struggle for international recognition despite establishing a more stable governance system than that of Somalia.
U.S. involvement in Somalia has often intensified local grievances and bolstered extremist groups like Al-Shabaab, necessitating a reassessment of intervention strategies.
The potential establishment of a U.S. naval base in Somaliland raises concerns about exacerbating regional conflicts and hindering local governance efforts.
Deep dives
Understanding Somaliland and Somalia
Somaliland emerged as a de facto independent state in 1991 after a long period of civil strife in the region. The historical context, including its colonial past as British Somaliland, is significant in distinguishing it from Somalia, which was formerly Italian Somaliland. While Somalia is plagued with issues such as piracy and terrorism, Somaliland has managed to establish a relatively stable government and functioning democracy despite its poverty and internal challenges. This situation raises questions about international recognition, as Somaliland seeks legitimacy on the global stage, leveraging its political ties with the U.S. to gain support.
The Impact of American Foreign Policy
The U.S. involvement in Somalia, particularly since the early 2000s, has often exacerbated the issues rather than resolve them. Support for the Mogadishu government, including military action, has fueled the rise of extremist groups like Al-Shabaab, converting local grievances into a protracted insurgency. The discussion emphasizes the failure of U.S. policies, highlighting that continued military presence has led to wasted resources with little to show for it. A reevaluation of this policy could be pivotal in addressing the long-standing issues of stability in both Somalia and the surrounding regions.
Exploring the Al-Shabaab Insurgency
Al-Shabaab represents the most radical faction arising from the disintegration of various power structures in Somalia, including the Islamic Courts Union. Past actions, such as the United States’ backing of warlords, contributed to the chaos and enabled the growth of such extremist groups. The episode discusses the challenges in mitigating Al-Shabaab’s influence, with the speaker suggesting that incorporating moderate Islamic elements into governance may offer a unique pathway forward. The complex dynamics of religion and governance in Somalia call for nuanced strategies, rather than blanket military interventions, to address the underlying issues.
Somaliland's Unique Position
Recognizing Somaliland poses a dilemma for the international community and may contradict established norms of state recognition shaped by geopolitics. Currently unrecognized by most countries, Somaliland's internal governance appears to function more effectively than the recognized Somali government, prompting debates on the implications of recognition. The historical context of Somaliland’s strife shows how its citizens desire independence and stability, diverging from the chaotic narrative associated with Somalia. Observers of international relations argue that recognizing Somaliland not only aligns with its reality but may also encourage stability in the Horn of Africa.
Potential Consequences of U.S. Policy Shifts
The possibility of establishing a U.S. naval base in Somaliland is discussed in response to strategic interests in the region, particularly regarding maritime security trade routes. Critics of renewed military strategies in Africa contend that attempts to control the region may inadvertently disrupt existing dynamics and incite further conflict. By framing the potential naval presence as an attempt to bolster regional security, there remains a risk of entangling the U.S. in long-standing conflicts while undermining local governance efforts. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the consequences of such actions will undoubtedly impact the Horn of Africa well into the future.
Scott is joined by Brad Pearce to discuss some of the recent developments around the world that he’s following and writing about. They start with what’s happening in Somalia and how the Trump administration will likely affect the dynamics in that region. They then move on to Yemen, where Trump’s first term was defined by continuing Obama’s support for the Saudi war on the Houthis, and his second term has—so far—been defined by a continuation of Biden’s policy of direct strikes on the Houthis. They also discuss Romania, the revelations about USAID and Washington’s meddling in the country of Georgia.