Unwind of The Sovereign Bond Bubble (guest: Peter Boockvar)
Nov 18, 2023
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Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report, joins Patrick and Kevin to discuss the similarities between the current financial environment and past crises like the DotCom bubble and 2008 crisis. They reflect on historical events, investment biases, market panic triggers, and concerns about inflation. The chapter also delves into safety trades, admitting mistakes in trading, contrarian trades, and the potential for a Chinese economic rebound. They analyze the possibility of a new bull market, market conditions, rotation moments, and listener questions. There's also light-hearted banter about Lindsay Lohan, Deep Bake, and concert memories.
The current economic environment resembles past financial crises, such as the dot-com bubble and the 2008 crisis.
The bursting of the sovereign bond bubble and the unwinding of monetary stimulus could pose challenges in the bond market and impact global markets.
Technical analysis can provide valuable market insights and identify trends and opportunities.
Being humble, adaptable, and continuously learning is crucial in trading and investing.
Deep dives
The Current Environment Resembles Past Financial Crises
In this podcast episode, Peter Bookvar discusses how the current economic environment resembles past financial crises, such as the dot-com bubble and the 2008 crisis. He highlights similarities in market dynamics and warns of potential risks and vulnerabilities.
The Bursting of the Sovereign Bond Bubble
Peter Bookvar explores the potential consequences of the bursting of the sovereign bond bubble and its impact on global markets. He explains how rising interest rates and the unwinding of monetary stimulus could lead to challenges in the bond market and discusses the possible implications for investors.
Talking Charts and Market Insights
During the podcast, Patrick Suresna discusses his edition of Talking Charts, where he provides market insights based on technical analysis. He shares his perspectives on the current market trends and opportunities, using charts to support his analysis.
The Importance of Being Humble and Adaptable in Trading
Peter Bookvar emphasizes the importance of humility and adaptability in trading and investing. He discusses the need to acknowledge mistakes and continually learn from experiences, highlighting the value of being open-minded and flexible in the ever-changing markets.
Factors Driving Short-Term Bond Yields
The main factor driving short-term bond yields is the Fed funds rate. Other considerations to think about include the expected path of the Fed funds rate and any changes in market conditions.
What Happens When Bond Prices Roll Down
When bond prices roll down, the leftover cash from selling higher contracts is typically reinvested into buying more contracts, including money market funds (MMF) if applicable.
Managing Bond ETFs
Bond ETFs typically buy more contracts or underlying commodities when prices are at a discount in the future, and they buy less when prices are in contango. The goal is to be fully invested in the forward price of the commodity.
Limited Resources
When facing limited resources, it is important to focus on risk management, actively trade around positions, and consider expanding knowledge on the psychology of trading for self-improvement.
This week Patrick and Kevin welcome to the show, Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report, Peter Boockvar. Kev and Peter have an in-depth discussion about how the current environment resembles the DotCom bubble and the 2008 crisis. They also announce the winners of dinner & drinks with Kev…
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