The Big Story
Weekend listen: Economists struggling to forecast in uncertain times
Mar 9, 2025
Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC, shares his insights on the volatile economic landscape shaped by unpredictable trade policies. He discusses the challenges economists face forecasting in today's market, emphasizing how fluctuating tariffs impact Canadian exports and labor. The conversation highlights concerns about the automotive supply chain and the limitations of rapid manufacturing changes. Shenfeld also addresses inflation dynamics and the cautious role of the Bank of Canada amid these economic uncertainties.
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Quick takeaways
- The ongoing uncertainty from fluctuating trade tariffs has led economists to struggle with providing reliable economic forecasts, impacting businesses and consumers alike.
- Recent employment statistics indicate that despite seasonal hiring influences, the anticipation of tariffs has spurred exporters to respond proactively amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.
Deep dives
Impact of Trade Tariffs on Economic Forecasts
The current fluctuation of trade tariffs has made it increasingly challenging for economists to provide reliable forecasts about the economy. With President Trump's unpredictable decisions regarding tariffs, businesses and consumers remain in a state of uncertainty, which complicates the ability to assess economic stability. A critical factor in this situation is the lack of clarity about how long tariffs will remain in place and the magnitude of their impact on the economy. The evolving nature of these tariffs has forced economists to continually adjust their expectations, which has contributed to a cautious business environment.
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