30. Mad Poll Disease and the Folly of “Popularism” – with Michael Podhorzer
Nov 30, 2023
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Michael Podhorzer, a political analyst, discusses the confusion around poll data and the dynamics of American politics. He challenges the perception of Trump's abilities and the limitations of data analysis. The growth of the anti-Maga coalition and education polarization are also explored.
There is widespread frustration with Democrats and Joe Biden among the majority of Americans, stemming from the erosion of the American Dream and the diminishing quality of life in America.
The reliance on horse race polling and the popularism ideology among Democrats is misguided, as polling cannot explain behavior and popularism fails to address systemic challenges and inequalities.
There is a growing anti-MAGA coalition that rejects election deniers, advocates for pro-choice policies, and stands against threats to democracy, demonstrating the resilience of multiracial democracy and acceptance of people of color in executive positions.
Deep dives
The Frustration with Democrats and Joe Biden
There is widespread frustration with Democrats and Joe Biden among the majority of Americans. For the past few decades, people's expectations and quality of life in America have been diminishing, creating discontent. The American Dream of shared prosperity has eroded, and the notion of democracy no longer guarantees a better future. This frustration stems from the fact that for 80-90% of Americans, life in America hasn't lived up to their hopes and aspirations. The dissatisfaction with Biden and the Democrats is a reflection of this broader frustration with the state of the country.
The Problem with Polling and Popularism
The reliance on horse race polling and the popularism ideology among Democrats is misguided. Polling, while helpful in understanding specific aspects of the electorate, cannot explain behavior or provide a comprehensive understanding of what's happening in America. Popularism, which focuses on what is popular with swing or median voters, fails to recognize the complexity of the electorate. It perpetuates the idea that Democrats should cater to the sensibilities of moderate white men, disregarding the diverse views and concerns of other groups. Popularism also prioritizes economic issues over social and cultural ones, often at the expense of marginalized communities. This approach fails to address the systemic challenges and inequalities that people are facing.
The Power of the Anti-MAGA Coalition
There is a growing anti-MAGA coalition that rejects election deniers, advocates for pro-choice policies, and stands against threats to democracy. This coalition is visible in the aftermath of events like the recent Supreme Court case, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, which threatened reproductive rights. The coalition demonstrates the resilience of multiracial democracy and the increasing acceptance of people of color in executive positions. While the focus often remains on the challenges and threats to democracy, it's important to recognize and support the progress being made within the anti-MAGA coalition.
The Danger of Simplistic Understanding of Public Opinion
One key point discussed in the podcast is the danger of a simplistic understanding of public opinion. The hosts argue that many people view public opinion as a static entity that exists independently of the discourse surrounding it. They highlight the example of the J6 hearings, where public opinion shifted as a result of the hearings and the narrative surrounding them. The hosts criticize the notion that one can simply capture public opinion and follow it without considering the complex dynamics of discourse and narrative shaping.
The Limitations of Education Polarization
Another main idea explored in the podcast is the limitations of education polarization as an explanation for the divide between Democrats and Republicans. While education polarization is often cited as a major factor, the hosts argue that it is a superficial measure that fails to capture the complexity of individual attitudes and beliefs. They emphasize the role of community, environment, and other factors in shaping political opinions. Additionally, they discuss how education polarization is used as a tool to deflect from substantive discussions and push predetermined agendas. They advocate for a deeper understanding of the underlying power dynamics and core values at play within the political landscape.
In early November the New York Times released a poll that had Donald Trump clearly ahead in 5 of the 6 battleground states that will decide the 2024 election. It caused an earthquake and outright panic among (small-d) democrats. But just two days later, Democrats emerged victorious from an actual election. What on earth is going on in American politics right now? What are we to make of poll after poll claiming that Trump is on a path back to the White House? Do they tell us anything about what’s actually going on in the electorate? How should Democrats react in this situation?
There is no one else better equipped to discuss these questions – and shatter a few well-entrenched myths about elections and politics in the process – than Michael Podhorzer. He was, until recently, the long-time political director of the AFL-CIO and is now a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. And Mike is, without any exaggeration, a legend in progressive policy circles, having been instrumental in building and organizing an infrastructure for data-driven and evidence-based progressive politics. He is also someone who thinks deeply and sincerely about American politics and combines that with decades of experience as a leading progressive strategist and campaigner. The result is a clarity that few other political observers can rival – something he demonstrates regularly in his Weekend Reading Substack newsletter, in which he offers some of the very best political analysis out there.
We talk with Mike about why horse-race polling is “worse than useless” and should be ignored entirely; we dissect the dogma of “popularism” that is extremely influential in Democratic politics – even though (or, perhaps: precisely because) it offers white male identity politics rather than an adequate diagnosis or campaign strategy; and we discuss what’s actually going on in the electorate: Why there is so much frustration in U.S. society; the massive impact of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision; and why the pervasive idea of “education polarization” sanitizes and obscures the fault lines that actually shape U.S. politics.
Show notes:
Michael Podhorzer’s Weekend Reading Substack newsletter: https://www.weekendreading.net/
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This episode was produced by Connor Lynch
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