Watching and Waiting: Israel, Iran, War and Ceasefire
Aug 14, 2024
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Join regional experts Aaron David Miller, a seasoned analyst of Middle Eastern politics, and Barbara Slavin, a specialist in U.S.-Iran relations, as they navigate the fraught landscape of Israeli-Iranian tensions. They unpack potential retaliatory actions from Iran and the complexities of achieving a ceasefire amidst escalating conflicts. The conversation delves into the implications for U.S. foreign policy, Biden’s approach to the Israeli-Palestinian issue, and what the future holds for the region in this charged geopolitical climate.
Iran's potential military retaliation against Israel hinges on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, reflecting complex regional dynamics.
The influence of U.S. domestic politics on Israel's military strategy suggests a possible prolongation of conflict until after elections.
Deep dives
Iran's Potential Military Response
Iran may consider retaliating militarily in response to recent Israeli assassinations, particularly if a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict is achieved. Such a ceasefire could be interpreted by Iran as a strategic victory. If direct retaliation occurs, it could mirror past actions, such as missile and drone assaults. However, U.S. military resources in the region may enable a defensive posture against any Iranian strike, potentially complicating Iran's military calculations.
Negotiation Challenges in the Middle East
The complexities of negotiations regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict are influenced by the differing timelines and objectives of involved parties, particularly Israel and the U.S. There is skepticism about reaching an agreement that addresses the urgent humanitarian situation in Gaza, especially given the political pressures on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Historical context suggests that traditional negotiations in the region are slow, and the current circumstances are far from conventional, complicating potential resolutions. A phased approach might yield limited success in the form of temporary ceasefires, but lasting peace remains elusive.
U.S. Domestic Politics and Its Impact
U.S. domestic politics play a significant role in shaping Israel's decision-making regarding the conflict. Netanyahu's strategy appears geared toward prolonging the military engagement until after U.S. elections, possibly to secure favorable terms should a different administration emerge. However, growing international isolation and domestic dissatisfaction may pressure Israel for a change in approach. The implications of U.S. foreign policy decisions, particularly those involving humanitarian concerns and military support to Israel, are becoming increasingly significant as public sentiment shifts.
All eyes have been on Iran as the world waits a potential retaliatory strike on Israel. But what form will the strike take, and will it even happen? Regional experts Aaron David Miller and Barbara Slavin join Kori Schake and David Rothkopf to analyze the potential fallout of an Israeli/Iranian conflict and what the future holds for the region.