“I bet Greg Colbourn 10 k€ that AI will not kill us all by the end of 2027” by Vasco Grilo

Agreement

78 % of my donations so far have gone to the Long-Term Future Fund[1] (LTFF), which mainly supports AI safety interventions. However, I have become increasingly sceptical about the value of existential risk mitigation, and currently think the best interventions are in the area of animal welfare[2]. As a result, I realised it made sense for me to arrange a bet with someone very worried about AI in order to increase my donations to animal welfare interventions. Gregory Colbourn (Greg) was the 1st person I thought of. He said:

I think AGI [artificial general intelligence] is 0-5 years away and p(doom|AGI) is ~90%

I doubt doom in the sense of human extinction is anywhere as likely as suggested by the above. I guess the annual extinction risk over the next 10 years is 10^-7, so I proposed a bet to Greg similar to the end-of-the-world bet between [...]

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Outline:

(00:07) Agreement

(03:53) Impact

(05:18) Acknowledgements

The original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
June 4th, 2024

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GfGxaPBAMGcYjv8Xd/i-bet-greg-colbourn-10-keur-that-ai-will-not-kill-us-all-by

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.