Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Lori Calvasina and Mike McGlone
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Nov 24, 2025 Market pressures and valuation worries take center stage as Lori Calvasina shares insights on Fed rate cut expectations. The conversation dives into Bitcoin's recent rally, exploring past predictions and market positioning. Mike McGlone analyzes post-halving trends and the impact of ETF flows on cryptocurrency, while discussing the dynamics of market euphoria and risk management as the year wraps up. It's a deep dive into current financial landscapes and crucial investment ideas.
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Multiple Small Stresses Driving Market Moves
- Market stress stems from multiple small factors compounding rather than one single huge shock.
- Fed expectations and valuation ceilings since August have amplified volatility and constrained gains.
Fed Expectations Move Stocks Bigger Than Rates
- Shifts in Fed rate-cut expectations materially move equity markets when pricing for cuts is removed or restored.
- Returning cuts to the outlook tends to lift stocks, while removing them trips markets up.
Valuation Ceilings Are Capping Momentum
- Forward (FY2) valuations have been bumping into ceilings since August, limiting upward momentum.
- Companies are avoiding long-term guidance, making earnings visibility toward 2026 weak.