Corporate profits play a significant role in driving inflation in Europe, accounting for 45% of average inflation compared to import prices.
Import prices, particularly related to energy shocks, account for approximately 40% of average inflation in Europe.
Deep dives
Corporate Profits as Major Driver of Inflation in Europe
Corporate profits, rather than labor costs, play a significant role in driving inflation in Europe. While import prices contribute to inflation, the research indicates that profits account for about 45% of average inflation, compared to 40% attributed to import prices. Real wages have been eroded, reducing purchasing power for workers, while profits have remained relatively stable. The research suggests that tight monetary policies are necessary to anchor expectations and restrict demand, ensuring that firms accept higher labor costs without increasing prices further.
Import Prices and Energy Shocks
Import prices, particularly related to energy shocks, have a considerable impact on Europe's inflation. Import prices account for approximately 40% of average inflation between 2022 Q1 and 2023 Q1. Energy price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions have contributed to soaring inflation in Europe. However, the research reveals that corporate profits (45%) have a slightly greater influence on inflation than import prices, highlighting their role in driving inflation.
Comparison with Historical Energy Shocks and Other Regions
Comparisons with historical energy shocks, such as those in the 1970s, show differences in the drivers of inflation. Back then, labor costs played a significant role in price increases. In the current situation, profits have relatively outperformed wages, leading to reduced real wages for workers. While profitability within corporations has not massively increased, it has remained stable or slightly improved in sectors with increased demand. Variations across sectors and countries contribute to the complex nature of inflation drivers in different regions.
While import prices account for much of Europe’s inflation, its outlook largely depends on how companies absorb wage gains as higher prices erode workers’ purchasing power. IMF economist Frederik Toscani studies inflation and monetary policy in the Euro Area and is coauthor of a new paper that breaks inflation down into labor costs, import costs, taxes, and profits. In this podcast, Toscani says corporate profits account for 45 percent of price rises since the start of 2022.