What will derail the year-end performance chase?

This episode examines the key macro question of what factors might derail a strong year-end performance. It discusses the continued strength of Bitcoin and the NASDAQ along with their underlying drivers, contrasts between manufacturing and services PMI data, and moderating growth signals from China supported by expected fiscal and monetary stimulus. The podcast also highlights currency dynamics influenced by Lagarde’s views and potential temporary dollar weakness driven by Treasury General Account spend-downs in Q1. In addition, the episode outlines both short-term momentum from systematic fund flows and corporate buybacks and medium-term risks such as refinancing concerns. Quantitative signals including global liquidity trends, KISS backtesting comparisons, and volatility-adjusted momentum signals are also reviewed against a backdrop of a dominant REFLATION regime, while risks and opportunities linked to market positioning and systematic strategies are addressed.