James Athey believes credit spreads are too tight. Matthew Luzzetti expects a recession and equity market decline. Susan Thornton discusses China's need for increased household spending. Joe Feldman analyzes Walmart's lifted profit outlook due to US shoppers.
Credit spreads are too tight, indicating potential risks in the market.
Walmart's increased profit forecast reflects consumers seeking value in essential goods.
Deep dives
Walmart's Strong Performance Reflects Consumer's Focus on Value
Walmart has raised its annual profit forecast for the second quarter in a row, indicating that consumers are seeking value. Other retailers, such as Amazon and Target, have also seen increased traffic, especially in the grocery and consumables sectors. While discretionary spending has been soft, the lower freight costs have improved margins for retailers. The consumer is still able to spend, but it seems that spending is more focused on essential goods rather than broad categories. Overall, the consumer's prudent spending habits and balance sheet management suggest a sustainable trend, and a broad slowdown in retailing may not be imminent.
The Impact of Student Loan Repayments on Retailers
Resuming student loan repayments could cause additional financial strain on consumers. Target, catering to the middle-income consumer, expressed concern about the potential pressure on strained consumer budgets. While the impact may not be uniform across all retailers, as the high-end market is less affected, retailers targeting the middle-income bracket may experience some impact. However, it is important to note that not all consumers will be significantly affected, as the lower-end consumer segment may be less impacted by student loan repayments.
Potential Shift in Consumer Spending from Services to Goods
There are early signs of a potential shift in consumer spending from services to goods, particularly in the durable goods sector. As the summer has progressed, there has been a slight rebound in goods spending, and it is hoped that this trend will continue into the fall and holiday season. Christmas gifts and holiday spending may contribute to an increased focus on goods rather than services. While the shift is gradual, there are some positive indicators that consumer spending on goods may pick up.
Sustained Strong Performance for Walmart and Resilient Consumer Spending
Walmart's strong performance and increased profit forecast indicate a resilient consumer spending pattern. The consumer has focused on essential goods and sought value, leading to increased traffic at retailers like Walmart, Target, and Amazon. Despite soft discretionary spending, retailers have benefited from lower freight costs, which have improved margins. Prudent consumer spending habits and a balance sheet management approach suggest a sustainable trend in the market. Although a broad slowdown in retailing may not be imminent, the impact of student loan repayments and potential shifts in consumer spending from services to goods should be monitored.
James Athey, Abrdn Investment Director, says credit spread are too tight. Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, still expects a recession and for equities to come down. Susan Thornton, Yale University Law School Paul Tsai China Center Senior Fellow, says China needs households to start spending. Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Senior Research Analyst and Assistant Director of Research, discusses Walmart lifting its profit outlook on a boost from US shoppers.