Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Bret Barker & John Stoltzfus
Dec 24, 2024
Explore how the upcoming earnings season could reshape the market, especially during the holiday shopping period. Dive into the crucial role of inflation-adjusted rates and understand their implications for investors. Discover insights on current real rates and their historical context. Learn about consumer behavior after Fed rate hikes and how corporations are adapting to changing market conditions.
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Restrictive Real Rates
- Brett Barker notes that current real rates are nearing pre-GFC levels.
- He argues that the current economy isn't as robust as the pre-GFC period, making these rates restrictive.
Stoltzfus's Bullish Stance
- John Stoltzfus has maintained a bullish stance on the market for six years.
- He predicts the S&P 500 will reach 7,000, implying a Dow around 50,000.
Bears' Miscalculations
- John Stoltzfus believes the bears misjudged the Fed's actions and the consumer's resilience.
- He points out that consumer discretionary has performed strongly.