Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 1, 2025
May 1, 2025
Dan Ives, Global Head of Technology at Wedbush Securities, delves into the latest Big Tech earnings, sharing insights on Apple's upcoming performance and Tesla's evolving leadership. He discusses the implications of trade policies on the tech sector and how companies are strategizing amid uncertainties. The conversation also touches on how consumer confidence and market dynamics are influenced by political policies and tariffs, painting a picture of the complex relationship between the economy and the tech industry.
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Meaning of Credible Relent
- A credible relent means convincing the market that trade policy issues are resolved, possibly via partial trade deals or tariff lowers.
- Tariffs negatively impact U.S. growth and earnings, and a delayed relent risks triggering recession nonlinear effects.
Link Between Economy and Policy
- Presidential approval and consumer confidence are closely linked and drive trade policy decisions.
- Declining consumer confidence can pressure a trade policy relent before economic recession takes hold.
Tariff Impact on Earnings
- Tariffs cause significant negative earnings impact, with an estimated $56 EPS hit on the S&P 500 over 12 months.
- If the trade relent is too late, recession nonlinearities might trigger, but post-recession recovery may follow supply-side playbook.