The podcast explores the factors that determine success in the NBA, including physical attributes, talent pool, and non-cognitive skills. It discusses Michael Jordan's exceptional memory and the correlation between names and demographics. The role of genetics in NBA success and the decline of hitting 400 in baseball are also debated. The concept of measuring success in sports is explored, focusing on breaking records and the extraordinary talents of Otani.
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Quick takeaways
Height is a significant advantage for reaching the NBA, but taller players may not always be more skilled in other areas of the game.
Hand size and vertical leap play crucial roles in basketball performance, particularly in blocking shots and grabbing rebounds.
Genetics and nurturing environments contribute to success in basketball, while creative pursuits like music and art present unique challenges for emerging artists.
Deep dives
The Impact of Height in Reaching the NBA
Each inch throughout the height distribution roughly doubles the chances of reaching the NBA. The advantage of height is significant, with the odds of reaching the NBA being one in seven for individuals who are seven feet or above. However, taller players may not always be more skilled in other areas of the game.
The Importance of Hand Size and Jumping Ability in Basketball
Hand size in basketball has been undervalued, with players having larger hands tending to outperform their draft rankings. Additionally, vertical leap and standing leap both play significant roles in blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. The standing leap, which measures how high a player can jump from a stationary position, has been found to be a stronger predictor of success in these areas.
The Influence of Height on Talent Pool and Popularity in Different Sports
Height offers a significant advantage in sports like basketball and volleyball. Countries with a high interest in volleyball have fewer NBA forwards, suggesting that some of the taller athletes are likely pursuing volleyball instead. Meanwhile, tennis has seen an increase in height among players, but the advantage of height in tennis is not as pronounced as it is in basketball and volleyball.
The Role of Socioeconomic Factors and Names in NBA Players
The prevalence of common names among African American NBA players is linked to socioeconomic factors. NBA players are less likely to have unique names compared to the general African American population. This indicates that the NBA predominantly draws from the middle class, upper middle class, and wealthy African American population, reflecting the disproportionate representation of economically advantaged individuals in the league.
Genetic and environmental factors in success
Genetics plays a significant role in basketball talent, with approximately 80% of basketball talent being genetic. Height, for example, is highly genetic, evident in the prevalence of identical twins in the NBA. In the future, genetic testing may guide individuals towards sports or activities that align with their genetic capabilities. Moreover, utilizing one's unfair advantage, whether it is through genetics or a nurturing environment, can contribute to success in a chosen field.
Challenges of standing out in creative pursuits
Unlike sports, creative pursuits such as music and art present challenges for individuals to stand out due to copyright laws and the difficulty in judging artistic achievement. The first great artists in a specific genre often capture the low-hanging fruit, making it harder for subsequent artists to replicate their success. However, artists who create new genres or styles can still achieve significant recognition by capturing their own unique niche.
Former Google data scientist and bestselling author of Everybody Lies Seth Stephens-Davidowitz turns his analytic skills to the NBA.
Shermer and Stephens-Davidowitz discuss: why some countries produce so many more NBA players than others • the greatest NBA players adjusted for height • why tall NBA players are worse athletes than short NBA players • How much do NBA coaches matter and what do they do? • In a population of 8 billion today compared to centuries past, where are all the Mozarts, Beethovens, Da Vincis, Newtons, Darwins, etc.?
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is a contributing op-ed writer for the New York Times, a lecturer at The Wharton School, and a former Google data scientist. He received a BA from Stanford and a PhD from Harvard. He is the author of Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are and Don’t Trust Your Gut: Using Data to Get What You Really Want in Life.
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