GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish
The End of Dollar Supremacy
Apr 16, 2025
Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish, both economists at TS Lombard, dive deep into the shifting landscape of global economics. They discuss the looming recession risks and the rivalry between China and the U.S., raising intriguing questions about who will yield first. The duo also explores the impact of tariffs and corporate choices, signaling the importance of economic indicators like the 'Perkins rule.' As tensions escalate, they examine the future of dollar supremacy and the resilience of the private sector amidst evolving market dynamics.
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Quick takeaways
- The potential for a recession is concerning, with about a 50-50 likelihood influenced by corporate uncertainties and fluctuating markets.
- Ongoing U.S.-China tariff disputes risk mutual economic destruction, complicating negotiations and potentially altering global economic dynamics.
Deep dives
Economic Damage and Recession Potential
There is an increasing consensus that economic damage has been inflicted, raising concerns about a potential recession. Current estimates place the likelihood of a recession at 50-50, driven by factors such as corporate uncertainties and fluctuating stock market performance. The impact of tariffs and inflation is notable, as these elements threaten corporate profits and could trigger a downward spiral in spending and confidence. Observing indicators like labor market data is crucial, as a decline there might signal the onset of recessionary dynamics.
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