Insightful Investor #99 - Joe Davis: Megatrends and the Tug-of-War Economy
8 snips
Dec 2, 2025 
Joe Davis, Global Chief Economist at Vanguard and author of *Coming Into View*, discusses the economic forces shaping our future. He emphasizes the tug-of-war between AI innovation and rising public debt, highlighting how consensus forecasts may be misleading. Joe explains his data-driven analysis of megatrends and argues that the typical growth/inflation expectations are unlikely. He provides practical guidance for asset allocation amid uncertainty and warns investors about potential market froth and valuation risks.
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Meeting Jack Bogle Early At Vanguard
- Joe Davis recounts meeting Jack Bogle as a new Vanguard employee and seeing his zeal for lowering costs and improving transparency.
- Bogle pushed Davis to blend academic ideas with practical investor-focused solutions at Vanguard.
Data Over Narratives For Megatrends
- Davis built a data-driven framework to quantify probabilities and magnitudes for megatrends like AI, demographics, and debt.
- That framework revealed many common narratives lacked quantified probabilities and could mislead investors.
The Tug-Of-War Economic Regime
- The decade ahead is likely not the stable 2% growth / 2% inflation regime many expect.
- A tug-of-war between AI-driven upside and deficit/demographic headwinds makes the median outcome less likely and the tails fatter.
