Mark Galeotti, head of Mayak Intelligence and honorary professor at UCL, offers insight into Keir Starmer's significant visit to Ukraine, highlighting a new long-term partnership. They discuss the balance of military support amid rising tensions with Russia and Trump's potential impact on peace talks. Additionally, Galeotti examines political shifts in Westminster prompted by Kemi Badenoch's critique of Tory leadership and the government's decision to launch inquiries into grooming gangs, showcasing the evolving political landscape.
Keir Starmer's visit to Ukraine and the introduction of a hundred-year partnership treaty aim to reaffirm UK support amid changing political landscapes.
Concerns arise regarding the UK's diminished proactive stance on Ukraine under Starmer compared to the previous administration, complicating peace efforts.
Deep dives
Keir Starmer's Visit to Ukraine
Keir Starmer's recent visit to Ukraine marks his first trip to Kyiv since becoming Prime Minister and is symbolic in nature, intended to reassure Ukrainians of continued British support amid shifting political dynamics. During the visit, he presented a treaty labeled as a 'hundred-year treaty,' which includes commitments to military cooperation and a sustained annual aid of £3 billion. However, much of the treaty appears to be superficial, with discussions around scientific partnerships and educational exchanges lacking immediate impact. Critics suggest that while Starmer's appearance is significant, it does not represent a substantial shift in UK policy towards Ukraine, but rather is a calculated move to maintain a leadership role in European support efforts while the Trump administration looms on the horizon.
Changing Dynamics in UK Support for Ukraine
The podcast discusses concerns among Ukrainian officials regarding the perceived reduction in support from the UK under Starmer compared to the previous government led by Boris Johnson. Reports indicate that Ukraine's leadership has expressed disappointment in Starmer's approach, which appears more cautious and less bold compared to the earlier administration's proactive measures, such as the provision of advanced military equipment. Many observers believe that the current UK government, facing domestic economic challenges, lacks the confidence and resources to assertively lead in international support for Ukraine. The discussions highlight that the essence of UK support remains, but the delivery and vigor have noticeably diminished in the current political context.
The Complexity of Peace Negotiations
The conversation touches on the intricate nature of achieving a peace settlement between Ukraine and Russia, emphasizing that mere ceasefires are insufficient for a lasting resolution. Potential negotiations are complicated by the contrasting ambitions of leaders, such as Donald Trump, who may underestimate the complexities involved in peace talks, and the problematic expectations from the Russian side. Discussions also reveal skepticism regarding the feasibility of Trump's proposed rapid solutions, noting that genuine peace requires substantial political negotiation and commitment from all parties involved. Additionally, the notion that the Russian press itself is unsure about Trump's approach illustrates the unpredictability and challenges surrounding diplomatic efforts in achieving a stable resolution.
Keir Starmer is in Ukraine today, on his first visit to Kyiv since becoming Prime Minister. And he came bearing gifts: a 100-year partnership agreement between the UK and Ukraine, covering nine ‘pillars’ from culture to science. It is hoped that the new pact will define the relationship between the two countries well beyond the current conflict with Russia. This is all in the context of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, with his administration agitating for a peace deal. Is peace on the horizon?
Also on the podcast, Kemi Badenoch's big speech – in which she criticised the decisions made by successive Tory prime ministers – was overshadowed by the announcement that there will be government-backed inquiries into grooming gangs. Is this the right call?
Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Mark Galeotti, head of Mayak Intelligence and honorary professor at UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies.
Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode