A Nobel laureate on the limits of evidence-based policy
Jan 17, 2024
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The podcast explores the limitations of evidence-based policy, the relationship between economists and policymakers, challenges in interpreting laboratory experiments, communicating confidence in economic findings, pricing carbon, and the potential of machine learning in economic analysis.
Evidence-based policymaking requires a conceptual framework to accurately interpret data and should not be solely reliant on evidence.
Economists should focus on helping policymakers improve their thinking processes rather than telling them what to think.
Deep dives
Importance of evidence-based policy-making
The podcast discusses the concept of evidence-based policy-making and highlights the importance of using data to inform decision-making. It emphasizes that evidence alone is not sufficient and requires a conceptual framework to interpret it accurately. The podcast suggests that policymakers should be open about the limitations of models and be cautious about solely relying on evidence without considering the underlying frameworks.
Challenges in evidence-based policy-making
The podcast explores the challenges of evidence-based policy-making, including the complexity of interpreting and applying evidence. It highlights that economists and policymakers may have varying interpretations of the evidence, and there is a risk of biased interpretations based on political agendas. The podcast suggests that instead of focusing on telling policymakers what to think, economists should focus on helping them improve their thinking processes.
The importance of models and frameworks
The podcast emphasizes that conceptual frameworks and models are crucial for understanding and interpreting evidence. It highlights that evidence should not be considered in isolation, but in the context of related events and historical outcomes. The podcast argues that frameworks help identify relevant evidence and provide a broader understanding of the implications of policies. It also emphasizes the importance of long-term responses and the challenges of extrapolating evidence from one situation to another.
The limitations of data and the role of economists
The podcast discusses the limitations of data and the challenges of translating research into policy, using examples like minimum wage and tackling inequality. It suggests that a comprehensive framework is essential for understanding the underlying economic factors driving outcomes. The podcast emphasizes the importance of recognizing uncertainty, avoiding overconfidence in predictions, and distinguishing between the stock and flow of knowledge. It also highlights the need for clearer communication between economists, policymakers, and the public.
In recent years, there’s been a strong push to elevate the use of data in public decision-making by using evidence-based policymaking. Not everyone is enamored of the idea. In a 2019 essay for Chicago Booth Review, Lars Peter Hansen, of Chicago Booth and the University of Chicago, said the notion of evidence-based policymaking was “a misleading portrayal of academic discourse and the advancement of understanding.” In this episode, Hansen and his Chicago Booth and University of Chicago colleague Kevin Murphy to discuss the issue.
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