Defense expert Satoru Mori and international relations specialist Yasuhiro Izumikawa discuss Japan's evolving threat perceptions and defense planning, including their views on China, Taiwan scenario, Gaza, and Ukraine conflicts.
Japan is investing in offensive capabilities to counter the growing missile threat from China.
The Japanese public is increasingly supportive of building a more capable and proactive defense posture, particularly against China.
Deep dives
Japan's National Defense Strategy Implementation and Shortfalls
Japan's national defense strategy is still in its early stages of implementation, focusing on improving readiness and addressing major shortfalls. For instance, the Japan Self-Defense Force faces shortages in parts and operational tempo. There is a need for heavy investment in areas like missile defense interceptors, weapon system upgrades, and facility hardening. New capabilities being developed include counter-strike and active cyber defense capabilities, with a focus on fixed target strikes. This acquisition of offensive capabilities is a response to the growing conventional missile threat from China.
Public Attitudes and Political Shifts in Japanese Security Policy
There has been a change in domestic dynamics regarding public attitudes towards defense in Japan. Contrary to the perception of being pacifist or anti-militaristic, the Japanese public is increasingly supportive of the need for greater hardware and capabilities to address security challenges, particularly from China. Japanese security policy has become more pragmatic and proactive, and the government is taking measures to build a more capable and proactive defense posture. The increasing threat perception and appreciation of deterrence have led to a shift in public sentiment.
Challenges and Considerations in a Taiwan Contingency
In the event of a Taiwan contingency, Japan's primary focus would be to support U.S. operations and defend its own territory. Challenges include the need for supporting U.S. bases, conducting operations to support Taiwan, and effectively educating the Japanese public about the risks and security implications of a Taiwan crisis. It is essential to reframe the Taiwan situation as an issue of Japan's future and security, rather than solely a localized conflict. Ensuring public understanding and resolve in facing potential Chinese coercion and pressure is crucial.
Improving US-Japan Alliance and Regional Cooperation
In terms of the U.S.-Japan alliance, there is a need for improved interoperability, military construction, and command and control modernization. Collaboration on missile defense, ammunition production capacities, and information security is necessary. Strengthening coordination and cooperation with other U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific, such as Australia and the UK, is also important. Developing a federated defense approach and enhancing regional partnerships in light of China's growing threats can enhance regional deterrence.
Nick sat down in Tokyo last week with Satoru Mori and Yasuhiro Izumikawa to discuss the evolution of Japan’s threat perceptions and defense planning. They also shared their thoughts on how Japan views the challenge posed by China, a potential Taiwan scenario, and the current conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.
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