Capital Ideas Podcast Private markets and macro outlook
18 snips
Nov 27, 2025 John Queen, Portfolio Manager at Capital Group with a focus on fixed income, teams up with Paula Campbell Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist for Global Wealth at KKR. They delve into the U.S. macroeconomic outlook, discussing interest rates and inflation trends. Queen highlights the risks to the rate outlook, while Roberts anticipates multiple Fed cuts. They also explore investment-grade versus high-yield credits, private equity valuations, and the potential for a public market bubble, all supported by robust corporate fundamentals.
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Growth Moderation With Support
- U.S. growth is decelerating from robust to moderate while AI, infrastructure and fiscal support sustain activity.
- Inflation is sticky above 2% and the Fed may be a bit more accommodative than expected.
Range-Bound Rates, Steepening Curve
- Rates are likely to be range-bound with the 10-year near 4% while the Fed may ease at the short end.
- Sticky inflation makes broad rate declines unlikely and could steepen the yield curve.
Prepare For Two Rate Risks
- Consider downside and upside risks: unexpected weaker growth could pull rates much lower.
- Also monitor sticky inflation which could push rates and volatility materially higher.