The Russo-Chinese Alliance and Great Power Competition with Dr. Tom Lynch
Mar 7, 2024
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Dr. Tom Lynch discusses the impact of Ukraine's war on great power conflict and US-China competition. Topics include China's stance on supporting Russia, the evolving dynamics of the Russia-China relationship, China's analysis of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, US-China rivalry, and alliance building in the Indo-Pacific region.
Russia and China's alliance faces tensions in supporting each other's interests, balancing multipolarity and economic considerations.
China learns from Russia's challenges in Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of info space, air superiority, and strategic planning for future conflicts.
Deep dives
The Russia-China Relationship Before the Ukraine Conflict
Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia and China had aligned rhetorically against the Western-led international order, advocating for a multipolar world not dominated by the US. Despite this alignment, there were tensions between the two powers, with Russia sometimes hesitant to fully support China's interests, such as in trade agreements and international disputes. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 surprised China, leading to dilemmas for China in balancing its partnerships with Russia and its economic interests in the West.
China's Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Shifting Alliances
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China initially maintained a cautious stance, waiting to see the outcome before fully committing support. As the conflict extended beyond initial expectations, China began reassessing its relationships with both Russia and Western Europe. China's post-COVID diplomatic charm offensive in Western Europe indicated a strategic shift away from Russia's aggressive actions, leading to strained relations between China and Russia, as witnessed in their divergent actions and positions on various global issues.
China's Evolving Relationship with Russia and Implications on Global Dynamics
China's evolving position indicates a delicate balancing act between supporting Russia enough to avoid complete Western isolation while not provoking the US into severe retaliatory measures. China's alignment with Russia in condemning Western actions and providing diplomatic support signifies a strategic shift in its approach to great power dynamics. This nuanced alignment aims to navigate global power struggles carefully, playing on the margins to advance Chinese interests without escalating conflicts with the US.
Lessons for China from Russia's Actions in Ukraine and Strategic Planning for Future Conflicts
China observed Russia's challenges in Ukraine as a learning opportunity, focusing on the need for dominance in info space, air superiority, and space capabilities in potential conflicts. Russia's struggles highlighted the importance of controlling communication channels, air operations, and space-based assets for ensuring military success. While China benefits from observing Russian failures in Ukraine, it also acknowledges the complexities and risks involved in potential conflicts, emphasizing the necessity of strategic planning and technological advancements for future engagements.
This week, Kelly talks with retired army officer and National Defense University research fellow Dr. Tom Lynch about the impact of Ukraine's war on great power conflict and US-China competition.
Dr. Thomas Lynch is an adjunct professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University and distinguished research fellow for South Asia and the Near East at National Defense University. Dr. Lynch is also a retired U.S. Army officer who served for 28 years in a variety of command and staff positions including as a Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Deputy Director of the Chairman’s Advisory & Initiatives Group, Commander of the U.S. Army War Theater Support Group in Doha Qatar, and Military Special Assistant to the U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan.
The opinions expressed in this conversation are strictly those of the participants and do not represent the views of Georgetown University or any government entity.
Produced by Freddie Mallinson and Jarrett Dang.
Recorded on February 28, 2024. Diplomatic Immunity, a podcast from the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University, brings you frank and candid conversations with experts on the issues facing diplomats and national security decision-makers around the world.
Funding support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
For more, visit our website, and follow us on Linkedin, Twitter @GUDiplomacy, and Instagram @isd.georgetown
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