Mark MacKinnon, a senior international correspondent for the Globe, dives into the recent shift in U.S.-Russia relations following Trump's surprising call with Putin. He highlights Ukraine's unexpected sidelining in peace talks and the implications for its future as the war's anniversary approaches. As tensions escalate, MacKinnon discusses challenges Ukraine faces in securing U.S. support amid changing political dynamics. The geopolitical landscape is evolving, with NATO and European nations left to grapple with the ramifications of reduced American backing.
Trump's call with Putin signals a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, breaking years of isolating Russia amidst Ukraine's ongoing conflict.
The sidelining of Ukraine in U.S.-Russia negotiations raises concerns about the legitimacy of NATO and European security amid shifting dynamics.
Deep dives
Unexpected Diplomacy Between U.S. and Russia
Recent diplomatic activities between the United States and Russia signify a turning point in relations, particularly in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The unexpected phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin marked a pivotal moment, breaking three years of U.S. efforts to isolate Russia. This culminated in U.S. and Russian delegations meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war, a move interpreted by many as a gift to Russia that could shift the balance in international dynamics. Thousands of miles away, Ukrainian military leaders express their disbelief, reflecting the astonishment felt within Ukraine and the wider context of how these high-level discussions are occurring without their involvement.
Controversial Peace Negotiation Proposals
During the aforementioned U.S.-Russia talks, significant proposals emerged, particularly a three-stage peace plan that sparked controversy. The plan's second stage, which calls for Ukrainian elections, raises critical questions about the feasibility of holding a vote under ongoing martial law; such a move could destabilize Ukraine's military efforts and trigger political infighting. Historically, Ukrainian elections have faced challenges, particularly from external influences, compounding the concern that calling for elections now may expose Ukraine to further foreign manipulation. Thus, the insistence on a peace negotiation framework that includes elections has been met with skepticism from Ukrainian officials who argue that true negotiations require their presence at the table.
European Concerns and the Future of NATO
The sidelining of the European Union in these U.S.-Russia negotiations has resulted in heightened anxiety among European leaders regarding their security and the future of NATO. This situation mirrors historical instances where the fate of countries was determined without their inclusion, evoking memories of agreements made during the 1938 Munich Conference and the 1945 Yalta Conference. With the possibility of the United States withdrawing support from NATO, European nations are contemplating how to defend themselves should Ukraine's plight continue to deteriorate amid a diminishing American presence. The stakes are high, as the legitimacy of NATO's collective defense may be under threat, especially if a growing Russia targets other Eastern European nations.
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump had a 90-minute phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the end of the war in Ukraine. That call ended three years of U.S. isolation of Russia – former President Joe Biden hadn’t spoken to Putin since before Russia invaded Ukraine – and caught Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky by surprise. Days later, U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia to discuss a plan for the end of the war, once again, without Ukraine.